Most Ukrainians say Donbas should not be ceded to Russia for security guarantees

A survey has discovered that 54% of Ukrainians firmly reject the idea of the entire Donbas region being handed over to Russia in exchange for US and European security guarantees.

Source: a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on 9-14 January

Quote: "The majority of Ukrainians – 54% – consider it categorically unacceptable to transfer the entire Donbas to Russia in exchange for security guarantees. At the same time, 39% are ready for such a concession (although most of them admit that this is a difficult condition). Another 5% could not decide on their opinion."

Details: KIIS notes that there are three roughly equally common explanations for why Ukrainians reject the proposal of Donbas territories being ceded (the percentages refer to respondents for whom this condition is categorically unacceptable or who could not provide a clear answer).

Firstly, 35% of respondents said that Russia would not stop and would continue attempting to wage war against Ukraine. Secondly, 33% indicated that Ukraine cannot simply give up its territories and the people who live there, citing the constitution and the principle of territorial integrity.

Thirdly, 25% of respondents expressed doubt about the realism of security guarantees from the West.

For reference: Between 9 and 14 January, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a survey using telephone interviews (computer-assisted telephone interviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random number generation followed by statistical weighting) across all regions of Ukraine under government control. A total of 601 respondents aged 18 or older residing in government-controlled territory at the time of the survey were interviewed.

Residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities were not included in the sample (although some respondents were internally displaced persons who had moved from the occupied territories). The survey also did not include citizens who had left Ukraine after 24 February 2022.

Under normal circumstances, the statistical margin of error for such a sample (with a confidence level of 0.95 and taking into account a design effect of 1.3) does not exceed 5.3% for indicators close to 50%, 4.6% for indicators close to 25%, 3.2% for indicators close to 10%, and 2.4% for indicators close to 5%.

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