Poll shows 69% of Ukrainians sceptical about success of peace talks, 57% say Russia may attack again

A survey has shown that 69% of Ukrainians do not believe current negotiations with Russia will result in lasting peace, while 57% think Russia could attack again even if the war is frozen and security guarantees are provided.

Source: a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)

Details: In the meantime, 26% of respondents said they believe the negotiations will be successful, while another 5% were unable to decide.

The sociologists noted that respondents who did not believe the negotiations would bring peace (or were undecided) were asked an open-ended follow-up question to explain their reasoning.

The majority of such respondents (52%) explained their scepticism by saying that Russia does not want genuine peace and plans to continue the war. For example, several respondents said:

• "Russia's goal is the destruction of Ukraine; they will not stop."
• "Putin does not need this. The war will continue until Russia collapses. Even if an agreement is reached, the peace will be temporary."
• "As long as the Russians still have resources, they will keep moving forward."
• "Because agreements with Russia, as the classic saying goes, are not worth the paper they are written on."
• "Because verbal arguments do not force Russia to act."

In addition, a majority of Ukrainians – 57% of respondents – expect Russia to attempt another attack even if the war were "frozen" along the current front line and Ukraine received security guarantees. Another 26% assess the likelihood as 50/50, which also reflects significant concerns about a renewed attack.

Only 11% of Ukrainians believe that Russia would not attack again.

Imagine that a ceasefire is declared along the current front line and that the United States and Europe provide Ukraine with security guarantees. In your opinion, would Russia try to attack Ukraine again or not?

For reference: The KIIS survey was conducted on 9-14 January 2026 using telephone interviews based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers across all regions of Ukraine under government control. A total of 601 respondents aged 18 and over were surveyed.

Under normal circumstances, the statistical margin of error for such a sample (with a confidence level of 0.95 and taking into account a design effect of 1.3) would not exceed 5.3% for indicators close to 50%, 4.6% for indicators close to 25%, 3.2% for indicators close to 10%, and 2.4% for indicators close to 5%.

Under wartime conditions, in addition to the stated formal margin of error, a certain degree of systematic deviation must also be taken into account.

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