Close to forecast: Ukraine's GDP grew by 2.2% in 2025, says economy ministry

Early estimates from the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture indicate that Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024.

Source: Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture

Details: The Ministry said Ukraine's economic growth was close to the level projected in official forecasts.

Among the factors that supported economic activity in 2025 were:

• Implementation of business recovery and development programmes financed by international assistance. Under the Affordable Loans 5-7-9% programme, entrepreneurs received new loans totalling around UAH 93.7 billion (US$2.1 billion), compared with UAH 93.1 billion (US$2.1 billion) in 2024.
• Growth in household consumption amid continued wage increases. According to work.ua, a leading Ukrainian job search platform, as of 6 January 2026, the average nominal salary based on job vacancies rose 30.8% to UAH 27,530 (US$632) compared with 7 January 2025, while the average salary based on CVs increased 39.9% to UAH 30,216 (US$693).
• Significant budget capital expenditure on rebuilding critical infrastructure, housing programmes (eVidnovlennia, eOselia), and procurement of domestically produced goods for the defence industry. As of 1 December 2025, capital expenditure from the consolidated budget had risen 17.3% compared with 1 December 2024.

In addition, structural changes in production continued in 2025, with a growing role of activities with higher value added. Over the first 11 months of 2025, the share of machine-building in the structure of industrial sales increased to 9.1% (from 5.7% in 2021).

An increase in industrial capacity utilisation was also observed. The highest utilisation rates were recorded in pharmaceutical production, furniture manufacturing, wood processing and the food and textile industries.

Meanwhile, the following factors exerted downward pressure on growth dynamics:

• large-scale Russian missile attacks on electricity generation facilities and gas extraction infrastructure
• lower yields of certain crops due to adverse weather conditions
• logistical difficulties, the cessation of natural gas transit via pipelines and narrowing demand, particularly from the agricultural sector.

Background:

• In late October 2025, Ukraine's National Bank reportedly revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.1% to 1.9%.
• In September 2025, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) also revised down its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2025 from 3.3% to 2.5%.
• According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine's real GDP grew by 2.9% in 2024 compared with 2023.

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