Experts analyse impact of Russian strikes on Ukraine's agricultural exports

Russian strikes on the port infrastructure of Greater Odesa and the Danube ports have significantly worsened Ukraine's export capacity and are already having tangible consequences for the agricultural sector, the Ukrainian Agri Council has said.

Source: Ukrainian agribusiness consulting agency APK-Inform

Details: "Due to intensified attacks in December and January, agri-food export performance deteriorated sharply," said Denys Marchuk, Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Agri Council. "Current export volumes are 47% lower than last year. So far, around 16 million tonnes have been exported, which is about 6 million tonnes less than during the same period last year."

He added that production indicators in the agricultural sector remain strong, but farmers are losing profitability. In the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine harvested more than 58 million tonnes of grain crops and about 17.7 million tonnes of oilseeds.

"This is a good result, but without stable exports these volumes turn into additional storage costs for farmers. Ukraine has not reached its planned export figures, which means a loss of foreign currency earnings and farm incomes," Marchuk explained.

He noted that such conditions negatively affect the timely financing of producers in preparation for the new sowing campaign.

Quote from Marchuk: "Winter is traditionally a period of resource accumulation for preparation for the sowing campaign: purchasing seeds, fuel and crop protection products. However, due to more complex logistics, additional insurance costs and declining incomes, many farms are experiencing a shortage of working capital.

The final price received by the producer is decreasing, and this directly affects readiness for the spring campaign. The cost of the 2026 sowing campaign may increase by about 15% compared to the previous year."

Background:

• Ukraine's seaports fulfilled more than 95% of their planned cargo turnover targets by the end of 2025. Under the plan, cargo turnover at seaports for 2025 was set at 86.2 million tonnes, while the actual result amounted to 82.2 million tonnes, or 95.36% of the plan.
• Over the last year, the intensity of Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure increased significantly: in 2024, 36 attacks were recorded, while in 2025 their number rose to 96. In 2025, 325 port infrastructure facilities were damaged.

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