CNN: Russia strengthening Arctic hold as Trump targets Greenland

The struggle for influence in the Arctic is intensifying as US President Donald Trump continues pressing the case for Greenland to join the United States. However, CNN says Moscow holds a dominant position in the Arctic region.

Source: CNN

Details: CNN notes that although Trump's claims over territory belonging to one of America's closest and most reliable allies have perplexed the world, the race for the Arctic has been underway for decades.

Quote: "And for a long time, Russia has been winning it.

There's no question that Moscow has had a dominating presence in the Arctic region.

It controls roughly half of the land and half of the maritime exclusive economic zone north of the Arctic Circle. Two thirds of the Arctic region's residents live in Russia."

Details: CNN adds that although the Arctic accounts for only a small share of the global economy – about 0.4%, according to the Arctic Council, a forum representing Arctic states – Russia controls two-thirds of the region's GDP.

Russia has been expanding its military presence in the Arctic for decades, investing heavily in infrastructure across the region.

The Arctic contains 66 military sites and numerous other defence facilities and outposts, according to the Canadian non-profit Simons Foundation, which monitors Arctic security and nuclear disarmament.

Based on publicly available data and research by the Simons Foundation, 30 of these are located in Russia, while 36 are in NATO countries with Arctic territory: 15 in Norway (including one UK base), eight in the United States, nine in Canada, three in Greenland, and one in Iceland.

Experts say Russia cannot currently match NATO's military capabilities; however, the scale of Russia's military presence and the pace of its expansion in recent years are a cause for serious concern.

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based defence think tank, has noted that in recent years, Russia has invested significant resources and effort in modernising its fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, which forms the backbone of its military power in the Arctic. While continuing its war against Ukraine, Russia has also enhanced its radar, drone and missile capabilities.

The situation was not always this dangerous. For many years after the end of the Cold War, the Arctic was one of the regions where Russia and Western countries appeared able to cooperate successfully.

The Arctic Council, established in 1996, sought to bring Russia closer to the other seven Arctic nations and promote closer cooperation on issues such as biodiversity, climate change and the protection of indigenous peoples' rights.

For a time, there were even attempts at security cooperation: Russia took part in two meetings of the Arctic Chiefs of Defence Forum before being excluded following the occupation of Crimea in 2014.

Since then, most forms of cooperation have been suspended, and relations between the West and Moscow fell to a new post-Cold War low after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO in 2023 and 2024 has effectively split the Arctic region into two roughly equal parts: one controlled by Russia and the other by NATO.

Trump has repeatedly said the US needs Greenland for national security reasons, citing the ambitions of Russia and China in the Arctic. He has claimed that Denmark, which has sovereignty over the world's largest island, is not strong enough to protect it from threats posed by the two countries.

Although China is not an Arctic state, it has made no secret of its interest in the region. In 2018, it declared itself a "near-Arctic state" and outlined the "polar silk road" initiative for Arctic shipping.

In 2024, China and Russia began joint patrols in the Arctic as part of broader cooperation between the two countries.

Quote: "But security is not the only reason why interest in the Arctic is growing. The region is transforming faster than any other area of the world as the climate crisis deepens, warming up around four times faster than the global average.

Sea ice is shrinking at a rapid rate. But while scientists are warning that this could have incredibly damaging consequences for the natural world and the livelihoods of the people who rely on it, there are many who argue melting sea ice could also unlock a huge economic opportunity in terms of mining and shipping."

Details: Two shipping routes that were largely impassable just 20 years ago are now opening due to dramatic ice melt – although researchers and environmental groups warn that sending fleets of vessels through this pristine, remote and hazardous region could lead to environmental and human catastrophe.

The Northern Sea Route, which runs along Russia's northern coast, and the Northwest Passage, which skirts the northern coast of North America, have been largely ice-free at the height of summer since the late 2000s.

The Northern Sea Route cuts the sailing time between Asia and Europe to around two weeks, roughly half the time required via the traditional route through the Suez Canal.

CNN adds that the situation changed in the early 2010s, when the passage became more accessible, and since then, the number of transits has risen from just a few per year to around 100.

Since 2022, Russia has increasingly used this route to transport oil and gas to China after sanctions cut it off from its previous European customers.

Similarly, the Northwest Passage has also become more navigable: the number of crossings has risen from a handful per year in the early 2000s to 41 in 2023.

A third, central route running directly across the North Pole may also become possible in the future, although the level of ice melt required would have alarming consequences, accelerating global warming, intensifying extreme weather events and destroying valuable ecosystems in the region.

Quote: "As for mining, there is a possibility that the melting ice could expose land that was previously impossible to exploit. Greenland in particular could be a hot spot for coal, copper, gold, rare-earth elements and zinc, according to the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland.

However, researchers say it would be extremely difficult and expensive to extract Greenland's minerals because many of the island's mineral deposits are in remote areas above the Arctic Circle, where there is a mile-thick polar ice sheet and darkness reigns much of the year."

Details: The idea that these resources could be easily extracted for the benefit of the United States was described by CNN as "completely bonkers" by Malte Humpert, founder and senior fellow at the Arctic Institute.

Although Trump has recently focused on Greenland's security aspects, his former national security adviser Mike Waltz said in 2024 that the administration's attention to Greenland was centred on critical minerals and natural resources.

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