Latvia intelligence warns Russia increasingly views Latvia like pre-war Ukraine

Latvia's Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) has published an unclassified section of its 2025 annual report and has warned that Russia may try to influence Latvia's elections this year.

Source: SAB, as reported by European Pravda

Details: Alongside its assessment of last year, SAB also offered a forecast on how current security issues could develop.

Quote: "Over the past few years, Moscow's perception of the West as an existential threat to the ruling regime has only intensified… Russia believes it has already entered a direct confrontation with the West: the struggle takes place not only in Ukraine but also globally and ideologically… Russia's aggravated threat perception means a significant increase of security threats for Europe."

More details: SAB reported that Russia continues to use and constantly adapt existing hybrid tools while also developing new ones to advance its influence and plans.

One tool increasingly used is the use of legal mechanisms on the international stage to discredit Latvia and to maintain sustained international pressure on Latvia to change its policies towards Russia and the Russian-speaking population. The report includes a separate section explaining how this mechanism is used.

SAB said that Russia will continue to pose a significant military threat to European countries and NATO. It adds that the militarisation of Russia's economy will continue even after a possible end to the war in Ukraine or a freeze in hostilities.

SAB also reports that Russia's perception of Latvia is becoming increasingly similar to the way it viewed Ukraine before the war.

Quote: "While Russia does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia at the moment, a number of signs indicate potential long-term plans."

Egils Zviedris, Director of SAB, commenting on the annual report and current security challenges, said that the level of threat from Russia will remain high, so Latvia must work in a targeted way to reduce it. The country must also be prepared for Russia to try to influence the parliamentary elections that will take place in Latvia in the autumn this year.

The classified part of the annual report will be reviewed by the Cabinet of Ministers and the National Security Commission of Latvia's parliament. This will set the directions for SAB's work in 2026.

Background:

• Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service has previously said that there are currently no signs Russia intends to attack any of the Baltic states or NATO as a whole.
• European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius said in November 2025 that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin could order an attack on a NATO state within the next two to four years, and the Baltic states may be one of Russia's most likely targets.

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