CSIS: Russia has lost 1.2 million soldiers, twice as many as Ukraine

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, has reported that Russian forces have likely suffered twice as many casualties as Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.

Source: CSIS

Details: CSIS estimates that Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties since February 2022, more losses than any major power in any war since World War II.

Quote: "At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026.

After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 m per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century."

Details: According to CSIS estimates, Russian forces have suffered roughly 1.2 million casualties (killed, wounded, or missing), with fatalities reaching 325,000 since February 2022.

The centre notes that "assessing casualties and fatalities in wartime is difficult and imprecise, and various sides have incentives to inflate or shrink the numbers for political purposes".

Quote: "There were roughly 415,000 Russian casualties in 2025 alone, with an average of nearly 35,000 casualties per month. In addition, there were roughly 275,000 to 325,000 Russian battlefield fatalities between February 2022 and December 2025.

Russian battlefield fatalities in Ukraine are more than 17 times greater than Soviet fatalities in Afghanistan during the 1980s, 11 times greater than during Russia's First and Second Chechen Wars in the 1990s and 2000s, respectively, and over five times greater than all Russian and Soviet wars combined since World War II."

Details: CSIS said Russian battlefield losses significantly exceed those of Ukrainian forces – by a ratio of roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1.

"Ukrainian forces likely suffered somewhere between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including killed, wounded, and missing, and between 100,000 and 140,000 fatalities between February 2022 and December 2025.

Combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties may be as high as 1.8 million and could reach 2 million total casualties by the spring of 2026," CSIS said.

The centre attributes Russia's high losses to a strategy "in hopes of eventually wearing down Ukraine's military and society".

Nonetheless, CSIS notes that Ukrainian forces have also sustained significant losses and damage as a result of a "defence-in-depth" strategy.

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