Main battle for Donetsk Oblast will be in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk – DeepState assesses pace of Russian advance

Russian forces would need at least two years to fully seize Donetsk Oblast at last year's pace of their advances in the region, according to assessments by DeepState, a Ukrainian group of military analysts.

Source: DeepState co-founders Ruslan Mykula and Roman Pohorilyi at a special session of the Kyiv Security Forum, as cited by Ukrinform

Quote from Mykula: "Seventy-eight per cent of Donetsk Oblast is currently occupied by the enemy. How quickly can the Russians occupy Donetsk Oblast? It is worth noting that before the full-scale invasion, the Russians controlled 32.3% of the oblast's territory. In 2022, the enemy captured another 24.4% of the oblast. From 2023 to now, 21.8%. A total of 21.5% of the oblast currently remains under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. If we take the pace of 2025, as it is indicative, the enemy will need at least 742 days, or about two years, to fully occupy Donetsk Oblast."

Quote from Pohorilyi: "Some predicted that Pokrovsk would fall by the New Year. However, today we see that the northern outskirts of both cities – Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad – remain under the control of the defence forces amid ongoing fighting."

Details: Pohorilyi said that the Russians are currently deploying the largest amount of their resources in this region, "a grouping of more than 100,000 troops that cannot cope with these cities and Ukraine's defence forces".

"Speaking about further developments, once certain settlements fall, and they [Russian forces – ed.] will capture them sooner or later due to their significant potential, they will move deeper into Donetsk Oblast," he said.

Pohorilyi added that the Russians' objective would then be Ukrainian logistics, in order to prevent advances towards the next cities, where the main battle for Donetsk Oblast will take place. The analysts say this battle will unfold in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Meanwhile, Mykula and Pohorilyi stressed that Russian forces are currently probing Ukrainian defences: "attempts are already taking place during which they identify our weak points".

"We forecast at least two years of fighting, during which they will lose a colossal amount of personnel, equipment and other resources," the analysts concluded.

Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!