Russia ramps up shell production in preparation for next war – Estonian intelligence

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has said that Russia has increased ammunition production to such an extent that it effectively indicates preparation for a future war beyond Ukraine.

Source: Estonia's intelligence report 2026

Details: Russian factories produced over seven million artillery shells, mortar rounds and rockets in 2025, up from 4.5 million in 2024. Overall, ammunition production has increased seventeenfold since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, largely due to the construction of new manufacturing facilities.

The production structure in 2025 was as follows:

• howitzer ammunition (122mm, 152mm and 203mm) – 3.4 million
• mortar rounds (120mm and 240mm) – 2.3 million
• ammunition for tanks and infantry fighting vehicles – 0.8 million
• rockets for multiple-launch rocket systems – 0.5 million.

In addition to domestic production, Russia is actively importing ammunition. Moscow has received between five and seven million shells from Iran and North Korea since 2023. According to intelligence estimates, ammunition from North Korea accounted for up to half of all shells used by Russia to attack Ukraine in the second half of 2025.

The purchase of this ammunition cost Russia around RUB 1 trillion (about €10.6 billion) in 2025. Meanwhile, production costs remain low: for example, a 152mm shell costs less than RUB 100,000 (around €1,050), which is several times cheaper than Western 155mm equivalents.

Quote: "Given this production growth and substantial imports, Russia is highly likely to be able to replenish part of its strategic artillery ammunition reserves even while engaged in the ongoing war against Ukraine. For the Kremlin, maintaining such reserves is almost certainly a critical element of planning for potential future conflicts."

Background:

• Lieutenant General Gerald Funke, Chief of the Bundeswehr Joint Support Command Headquarters, warned that Russia could attack NATO countries within the next two to three years.
• At the same time, NATO plans to conduct large-scale rearmament along its borders with Russia and Belarus over the next two years, stockpiling significantly more weapons and creating an unmanned robotic zone.
• General Eirik Kristoffersen, Chief of Defence of Norway, also said that Oslo is preparing for a possible Russian invasion.

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