Russian losses in January exceeded number of new recruits – Bloomberg
Russia's personnel losses on the battlefield in Ukraine exceeded the Kremlin's ability to replenish its forces by around 9,000 personnel in January.
Source: Bloomberg, citing assessments by Western officials
Details: The sources said that Russian troops had failed to achieve significant territorial gains in January despite sustaining heavy losses.
The number of Russian soldiers killed in December rose to 35,000, roughly double NATO's calculated monthly average for 2025.
Earlier this month, Ukraine's Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov outlined a strategy aimed at increasing Russian losses to 50,000 personnel per month. Officials in Kyiv believe that sustaining such a level of casualties would make it impossible for Moscow to replace its forces without Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin announcing a new wave of mobilisation.
Western officials said that in December, Russian losses had roughly been equal to the number of recruits Moscow was able to attract each month. However, the shortfall recorded in January suggests that Ukraine's strategy of attrition may be having an effect.
Western partners link the rising fatality rate to advances in the Ukrainian military's use of unmanned systems.
On 6 February, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that the overall size of Russian forces deployed on the battlefield has remained stable over the past six months at around 712,000 personnel despite Russian claims of meeting recruitment targets.
According to DeepState, a Ukrainian group of military analysts, Russia's territorial gains over the past three years amount to about 1% of Ukraine's total area.
The growing losses are casting doubt on the Kremlin's narrative, sometimes echoed by US President Donald Trump, about the inevitability of Russia's victory in the war.
Background: Putin has sought to avoid another large-scale mobilisation because of its deep unpopularity within Russian society. The previous call-up of 300,000 reservists in September 2022 led to hundreds of thousands of men fleeing abroad and triggered a significant rise in social discontent.
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