EU hopes for Orbán's defeat but does not expect Hungary to change course – Reuters

European diplomats are counting on the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in the elections but believe his potential successor will not change Budapest's key approaches to the EU.

Source: Reuters, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The agency spoke with more than a dozen current and former officials familiar with Europe's relations with Hungary about the implications for the EU of the elections taking place next month.

Speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the internal politics of a member state, many expressed their frustration with Orbán openly.

Orbán, who maintains friendly relations with Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin and is also a close ally of US President Donald Trump, frequently irritates his EU partners. The last time he did so was by blocking the allocation of a vital €90 billion loan to Ukraine.

"This was the last straw that broke the camel's ​back. On our side, the hope to talk reason into Orbán is gone," one EU diplomat said.

Diplomats from many EU governments say that should Orbán lose power, they hope Hungary will cease blocking a range of policy initiatives – from granting a loan to Ukraine to sanctions against Russia and aggressive Israeli settlers.

If Orbán wins and continues to exercise his veto, some officials expect attempts to sideline Hungary.

"If Orbán stays, we will have to change how we work," one senior European official noted.

The EU is also making no secret of its hopes for Orbán's defeat in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

"I think everybody hopes Orbán will lose," an EU diplomat said.

While many in Brussels are hoping for a new era in relations with Budapest should the Tisza party win, there is also caution.

In particular, Péter Magyar – remembered in Brussels as a tough negotiator when he worked as a Hungarian diplomat – will nonetheless remain among the most sceptical voices on migration and the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU, officials note.

"I have very few illusions about Magyar's world view. We should be careful ​not to expect too much. The difference will be more in tone of voice than substance," one EU diplomat noted.

Another source of the agency also does not expect a fundamental change in Hungary's approach to the EU should Magyar come to power.

"Magyar is from ⁠the same political family (as Orbán), nobody is expecting a revolution," they said.

An adviser to Magyar, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that indeed his government would not differ greatly from Orbán's on issues of migration and EU enlargement.

"But the difference is that Orbán used this to ​blackmail (the EU) and represent the Russian interest. We will represent the Hungarian interest," he added.

Background:

• A poll conducted by the 21 Research Centre reportedly showed that 36% of Hungarians believe Orbán's Fidesz party will win the 12 April elections despite trailing the opposition Tisza party in the polls.
• It was also reported that, according to European intelligence services, amid falling ratings for the ruling Fidesz party, Russian security services proposed staging an assassination attempt on Orbán in order to secure greater public support.

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