War against Iran will add US$9bn to Russian budget, Reuters says

Volodymyr Tunik-Fryz - 9 April, 18:05

The Kremlin. Photo: Getty Images

Russia's revenues from its largest single oil tax are expected to double to US$9 billion in April due to the oil and gas crisis triggered by the United States and Israel's attack on Iran.

Source: Reuters calculations

Details: Russia's main revenues from its vast oil and gas sector are based on extraction. Export duties on crude oil were abolished at the start of 2024 as part of the so-called "wider tax manoeuvre", a multi-year sectoral tax reform.

Quote: "According to Reuters calculations based on preliminary production data and oil prices, Russia's mineral extraction tax on oil output will increase in April to around RUB 700 billion (US$9 billion) from RUB 327 billion in March. The revenue is up by some ‌10% from ⁠April last year."

Details: For the whole of 2026, Russia has budgeted RUB 7.9 trillion (US$101.7 million) in mineral extraction tax revenues.

The average price of Russia's Urals crude, used for taxation purposes, rose to US$77 per barrel in March, the highest level since October 2023, data from Russia's Ministry of Economic Development show.

This is 73% higher than the February price of US$44.59 per barrel and above the US$59 level projected in this year's state budget.

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said that amid a serious global energy crisis that has shaken the foundations of oil and gas markets, there has been a surge in requests for Russian energy from different parts of the world.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure aimed at undermining Moscow's finances have contributed to lower revenues and threaten to reduce oil production.

The scale of Russia's windfall gains will ultimately depend on how long the crisis around Iran lasts.

Background:

On average, Russia exported 3.35 million barrels of oil per day between 8 March and 5 April, the highest export level since June 2022.
On 9 April, oil prices rose again as doubts about a fragile two-week ceasefire in the Middle East increased concerns that energy flows through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz would remain constrained.

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