Russian companies' debt has reached highest level since global financial crisis, Ukrainian intelligence says

Overdue accounts receivable in Russia's corporate sector have reached their worst level since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Source: Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU)

Details: Overdue receivables in Russia's corporate sector increased by 26%, from US$79.3 billion to US$100 billion, with their share in the overall structure reaching 10.3%.

"This is the worst figure since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The Kremlin is methodically destroying what remains of the business climate in the country," the FISU said.

The total volume of accounts receivable has changed little and stands at US$1.6 trillion, but this stability is misleading. Companies' accounts payable reached US$650.9 billion, while the share of overdue obligations increased from 6.9% to 8.2%.

Payment chains are breaking across the economy, the intelligence service noted.

A key mechanism of self-destruction is the state's interest rate policy. Average business loan rates in 2025 remained at 18-25% annually, while profitability in most sectors stood at 8-12%.

At the same time, short-term deposits yielded 14-16%. The calculation is simple: paying contractors is unprofitable, while keeping funds on deposit is profitable. Companies are increasingly choosing the latter option, shifting the burden onto partners in the supply chain.

The combined financial result of Russian companies in 2025 fell to US$352.1 billion – down 4% in nominal terms and nearly 13% after adjusting for inflation.

"Businesses have become poorer, but their obligations to banks have not decreased," the FISU said.

Small and medium-sized businesses proved the most vulnerable. Thirty-one percent of companies ended the year with significant unpaid receivables from counterparties, primarily state bodies.

In 19% of companies, invoices remained unpaid for more than six months. The state, which is already draining resources through mobilisation and defence spending, is also failing to pay suppliers.

If at the beginning of 2025 problems with settlements between counterparties were named as a key obstacle by 27% of companies, by December this share had risen to 42.3%. The business environment is deteriorating faster than the Kremlin can produce optimistic reports.

Analysts believe non-payments in Russia's corporate sector will increasingly take on a systemic character.

Quote from FISU: "The state, which simultaneously keeps the key rate at a stifling level, fails to meet its own payment obligations, and absorbs human and financial resources for the war effort, is systematically destroying the conditions for normal economic activity."

Background:

• The number of court rulings in criminal cases involving property confiscation in Russia increased from 11,000 to 31,000 between 2023 and 2025 after new legislation expanded confiscation powers.
• The FISU also reported that the budget crisis in Russia's regions made itself felt at the start of 2026 in the form of widespread delays to salary payments in the public sector.
• It also previously reported that sanctions, the loss of external markets and deteriorating global conditions have exposed structural weaknesses in Russia's regional budgets, which are no longer able to meet basic obligations.

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