Russia's oil windfall from Iran war turns out 10 times smaller than expected
Russia's oil and gas revenues turned out to be far lower than expected despite rising oil prices.
Source: The Moscow Times, an independent Amsterdam-based news outlet
Details: According to Russia's Finance Ministry, oil and gas revenues amounted to RUB 855.6 billion (US$11.4 billion) in April. This is only RUB 21 billion (US$280.8 million) above the baseline level calculated by the ministry based on the budget oil price assumption of US$59 per barrel.
Compared with March, oil and gas revenues increased by 40%, but they fell by 27% compared with April 2025.
In the first four months of 2026, Russia's budget received RUB 2.3 trillion (US$30.7 billion) from oil and gas revenues, which is 38.3% less than during the same period last year.
The additional RUB 21 billion in revenue announced in April turned out to be "significantly below forecasts" of RUB 200-250 billion (US$2.6-3.3 billion), economist Dmitry Polevoy noted.
Former Russian deputy finance minister Sergei Aleksashenko had expected a "war premium" of RUB 220 billion (about US$2.9 billion) in April oil and gas revenues.
Background:
- Reuters previously reported, citing an analytical centre close to the Russian government, that high global oil prices would not help accelerate Russia's economic growth this year because Ukrainian drone strikes and new Western sanctions are putting pressure on Russian oil production and exports.
- In April, the head of Swedish intelligence stated that the Russian economy, which is already faltering, had still failed to recover despite rising oil prices during the war in the Middle East, which replenished the Kremlin's depleted treasury.
Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!