DeepState: Pokrovsk scenario could repeat itself in Kostiantynivka as Russia disregards heavy losses

Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast from multiple directions and continue to infiltrate the city. According to DeepState, a Ukrainian group of military analysts, capturing Kostiantynivka would open the way for Russia to advance towards the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Source: DeepState

Quote: "The situation around Kostiantynivka is unfolding according to the worst-case scenario, as the enemy has literally reached the outskirts of the city from all directions and is exerting intense pressure while infiltrating deeper into the settlement. Russian infantry has been spotted advancing from the east via Novodmytrivka, with repeated sightings also reported from the directions of Berestok and Illinivka."

Details: DeepState said Russian forces hold a manpower advantage near the city and are gradually shifting to a long-term strategy aimed at capturing Kostiantynivka, partly mirroring the approach previously seen around Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, they are systematically destroying the city, reducing it to ruins that will eventually become impossible to defend.

The analysts noted that the Russians continue to sustain heavy losses but do not appear to factor them into their operations. DeepState compared the situation to Pokrovsk, where Russian forces suffered significant casualties yet ultimately captured the city.

"In Pokrovsk, they also lost a great deal of infantry, as was repeatedly noted in the Ukrainian mainstream and social media. But in the end, they captured Pokrovsk, while we also suffered enormous losses in personnel," DeepState says.

DeepState described Kostiantynivka as a "gateway" to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

The analysts argued that if Kostiantynivka falls – which they described as "a matter of time" – Druzhkivka, currently a vital logistics hub, would likely become the next target, followed by Kramatorsk.

They added that once Kostiantynivka comes under Russian control, logistics for Ukraine's defence forces in the area would change dramatically, creating major difficulties for troop movements and making even the presence of Ukrainian forces in Kramatorsk extremely dangerous due to the increased reach of Russian drone operators.

According to DeepState, Russian forces would then seek to open another "gateway" towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Background:

• On 12 June, media reports said that at least 100 Russian soldiers had infiltrated Kostiantynivka, with Ukraine's defence forces detecting Russian troops in the city centre.
• Commenting on the situation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine said it was not critical.
• Brigadier General Oleksandr Bakulin, Сommander of the 19th Army Corps, said that approximately 123 Russian servicemen are believed to be present in Kostiantynivka.
• Meanwhile, the general stressed that the situations in Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka are not identical.
• "To say that the enemy controls any part of Kostiantynivka at this point would be premature and an exaggeration," Bakulin emphasised.

Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!