Russia falls 10% short of oil production target after Ukrainian attacks

Russian crude oil production fell by about 5% year-on-year in May 2026 to 8.7 million barrels per day, leaving it 10% below the monthly target.

Source: Reuters, citing a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA)

Details: "Due to continued strikes on ⁠oil infrastructure, we have cut the Russian crude forecast this ​year by 200,000 bpd to 8.95 million bpd," the IEA said.

The agency also noted that Russian exports of crude oil and petroleum products remained stable at around 7.4 million barrels per day in May, virtually unchanged compared with May 2025, despite the attacks.

Total oil export revenues fell by US$710 million in May compared with April, reaching US$20.8 billion. The decline was caused by lower oil prices, although revenues were still 65% higher than in May 2025.

The IEA said Ukrainian attacks have forced Russia to prioritise supplies of petroleum products to the domestic market while maximising crude oil exports.

Crude oil exports increased by 490,000 barrels per day year-on-year to 5.2 million barrels per day, returning to 2022 levels.

Meanwhile, Reuters sources had previously reported that Russia intends to reduce crude oil exports as it plans to increase refinery processing volumes in June amid concerns over fuel shortages.

Background:

• In early June, Russia acknowledged for the first time a decline in oil refining and linked it to unscheduled repairs at a number of refineries.
• Since the beginning of 2026, Ukraine has carried out over 20 strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, particularly oil refineries, export terminals and pipelines. As of early May, the damage had already cost Russia more than US$7 billion.

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