Ukraine is still grappling with a severe shortage of air defence systems capable of bringing down ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles and Shahed one-way attack drones can be intercepted by most air defence systems or aircraft, but ballistic and hypersonic missiles are a different matter. Only two systems in Ukraine's arsenal – the Patriot and SAMP/T – can intercept them.
Ukraine fields only a limited number of these systems and has yet to develop an anti-ballistic missile capability of its own – a shortfall Russia is actively exploiting. Each week, Russian forces launch dozens of Iskander ballistic missiles, S-400 missiles and hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon (also spelt Tsirkon) missiles.
It is only this year that Russia has begun actively deploying Zircon missiles, with around 40 launched since the start of 2026. Kinzhals have been in use for longer. Despite the increased use of Zircons, questions have been raised about their capabilities.
Ukrainska Pravda has looked into a study by OSINT analyst Fabian Hinz and spoken with Ukrainian military personnel and Pavel Luzin, a senior research fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and the Saratoga Foundation, to examine the origins of the Zircon missile and the threat it poses.
Zircon strikes
The first reports of the use of Zircons emerged in late 2023, when Ukrainian bomb disposal experts found debris from a missile of this type in Zaporizhzhia. Over the next two years, Russia launched just six Zircon missiles. That picture has changed significantly this year, as around 40 launches have been recorded since the start of 2026.
Defence Intelligence of Ukraine attributes this uptick to expanding Russian stockpiles. While Russia was assessed to have about 40 Zircon missiles in 2024, Ukrainian intelligence now estimates the number has increased to around 230.
There has also been a shift in tactics. Launches previously came mainly from temporarily occupied Crimea, from where a Zircon takes approximately three minutes to reach Kyiv. Russia is now also firing them from Kursk Oblast. This has further reduced air defence reaction times and made interception more difficult.
The Zircon's key advantage is speed. Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has claimed that the missile can travel at Mach 9 (around 11,500 km/h, or about 7,100 mph). Valery Gerasimov, Chief of Russia's General Staff, has cited a lower figure of Mach 8 (10,200 km/h, or 6,300 mph) and said it can cover 450 km in 4.5 minutes.
Ukrainian analysts, however, put the figures lower, at Mach 5.5-7.5 (6,700-9,200 km/h, or 4,200-5,700 mph). Ukrainian Air Force officials say the missile slows to about Mach 4.5 (5,500 km/h, or 3,400 mph) before reaching its target, which creates a possible interception window. Out of 46 Zircons launched, Ukrainian Air Force data indicates that 41% have been shot down.
The Enigmatic Missile
The discrepancy in estimates of Zircon's speed stems from the fact that the missile has been insufficiently studied. Russia began developing it in the early 2010s and introduced it into service around 2022. However, details of its development and combat performance have been closely concealed by Russian authorities.
A suspected Zircon strike. Video from open sources
The Zircon was developed by the NPO Mashinostroyeniya (Machine Building Research and Production Association), a Russian rocket design office, and was initially intended for Admiral Gorshkov-class ships and Yasen-class submarines. Over time, K-300P Bastion launchers were also modified to carry the missile. It is from these platforms that Russia is striking Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces have managed to destroy some of them in Crimea.
Since Russia has sought to keep data on the missile tightly under wraps, analysts have had to piece it together gradually, drawing on leaked documents, patents and debris from downed missiles.
A single Zircon missile costs around US$5.6 million, according to Militarnyi, a Ukrainian military news outlet that accessed Russian procurement documentation. It is among the most expensive conventionally armed missiles, second only to the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. Ukrainian military estimates place the warhead weight at 220 kg, including about 80 kg of explosives. The Zircon is also assessed as potentially capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, although it is not known whether a nuclear version exists.
The officially stated range of the Zircon is over 1,000 km, although analysts treat this figure with scepticism.
"It is extremely difficult to fit a solid propellant for such a range within the stated dimensions. Moreover, a great deal depends on the type of engine," explains Pavel Luzin, a senior research fellow at CEPA and the Saratoga Foundation.
Scramjet, ramjet or rocket
The key mystery surrounding the Zircon lies in its engine. NPO Mashinostroyeniya has long focused on supersonic anti-ship missiles, such as Oniks and Granit, which use liquid-fuelled ramjet (air-breathing) propulsion systems.
A Zircon missile being launched. Video from open sources
When Russia presented the Zircon as a hypersonic missile, analysts suggested it might be powered by a supersonic combustion ramjet (scramjet). That would have suggested Russia had mastered this advanced propulsion technology. However, no evidence to support this has been found.
Some analysts then suggested that the Zircon uses a supersonic ramjet engine.
"It is unlikely that the Zircon is hypersonic," Luzin said. "It is more likely a supersonic missile with a ramjet engine – a signature product of NPO Mashinostroyeniya. In all likelihood, Zircon is a further development of Oniks. Since its appearance, any mention of the Oniks-M programme has vanished."
The fuel type also indicates that a scramjet engine is unlikely. Ukrainian experts analysing debris from downed missiles assessed that Zircon runs on solid fuel. The use of solid fuel in scramjet engines is still experimental, unlike ramjet technology, where this has long been tried and tested.
However, the ramjet theory also has shortcomings. Engines of this type require an air intake. In the Oniks, for example, it is integrated into the missile's body. In Zircon, however, analysts have been unable to identify one.
NPO Mashinostroyeniya's tendency to adopt non-standard engineering solutions led analysts to suggest that the air intake could also be concealed within the missile's body. However, neither patents nor footage of Zircon launches have confirmed this.
Ultimately, the absence of an air intake and the use of solid propellant led analysts to assess that Zircon is likely a quasi-ballistic missile.
Quasi-ballistics
The Zircon's flight trajectory also points to a quasi-ballistic profile. A quasi-ballistic missile follows a ballistic trajectory but can manoeuvre en route to its target to improve accuracy or complicate interception. This also helps explain fluctuations in the Zircon's speed recorded by the Ukrainian military.
"Based on its flight parameters, the Zircon is ballistic," a Ukrainian defence forces officer and author of the Telegram channel General Staff Colonel told Ukrainska Pravda.
Debris from downed Zircon missiles, examined by the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise, suggests the use of a solid-propellant rocket engine rather than a liquid-propellant system.
This assessment is also supported by Russian patents. Russian engineer Alexander Dergachov, who played an important role at NPO Mashinostroyeniya, outlined the company's concept for prospective hypersonic anti-ship missiles as early as 2016. In 2026, he was appointed acting director general of the company.
Three patents of his were co-authored with engineers from NVO Iskra, a leading design office specialising in solid-propellant rocket engines. The patents relate to a new turbojet engine design.
Furthermore, despite its usual focus on supersonic anti-ship missiles, NPO Mashinostroyeniya has been developing concepts for quasi-ballistic systems in parallel since the 1990s. In 2011, its engineers patented a manoeuvrable quasi-ballistic missile capable of flying at supersonic and hypersonic speeds.
A step towards hypersonic technology
Whether Zircon is a hypersonic or quasi-ballistic missile is, above all, a question of how far Russia has advanced technologically.
In the public's imagination, Zircon is seen as a state-of-the-art hypersonic cruise missile, reinforcing the perception of a sophisticated, technologically advanced weapon. In the context of information warfare, this is significant, as it supports the narrative that Moscow is ahead of the US in the hypersonic arms race. The air of mystery surrounding the missile further amplifies this perception.
However, it would be wrong to treat Zircon purely as a propaganda tool. In much of the literature and in many online articles, missiles are divided into hypersonic and non-hypersonic categories, but this oversimplification is misleading. In hypersonic systems, speed is not the main factor; rather, it is the ability to manoeuvre and sustain those manoeuvres at hypersonic velocities.
Zircons being downed. Video: General Staff Colonel, a Telegram channel
Although a quasi-ballistic system is less complex than a scramjet-powered missile, it is still a viable approach. As an interim capability, Zircon provides Russia with both a combat-ready weapon and practical experience that may support the development of genuine hypersonic technologies in the future.
A similar approach has been taken by Japan with its HVGP and by Iran with its Fattah missile series. In their early stages, these systems were closer to ballistic missiles, but they are projected to evolve into fully fledged hypersonic missiles in the long term.
It is noteworthy that as early as 2016, NPO Mashinostroyeniya submitted a design for a hypersonic winged missile featuring a detachable scramjet engine.
Zircon is therefore not the ultimate objective, but rather a step along this path.
Illia Volynskyi
Translated by Artem Yakymyshyn
Edited by Susan McDonald