Adoption of EU's 21st Russia sanctions package could be postponed until autumn – sources
If EU member states fail to reach an agreement on the European Union's 21st package of anti-Russian sanctions this week, its adoption could be postponed until autumn, while the freeze on the Russian oil price cap would be approved separately as a standalone sanctions measure on Monday 14 July.
Source: European Pravda sources in Brussels
Details: EU member states are expected to seek agreement on the 21st package of sanctions against Russia at meetings of the Committee of Permanent Representatives (Coreper) on 8 and 10 July. Otherwise, its adoption may be delayed until September, while the Russian oil price cap would be dealt with outside the sanctions package.
According to European Pravda, the Irish Presidency remains determined to finalise the 21st sanctions package during the Coreper meetings on Wednesday 8 July and Friday 10 July, so that it can be adopted at the EU Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels on Monday 13 July.
However, several EU diplomats and officials who spoke to European Pravda expressed a more sceptical view.
"If, by Wednesday, it does not look like we are moving towards an agreement, then we will simply have to move to Plan B. That means approving the freeze on the Russian oil price cap separately on 14 July. The 21st sanctions package could then be prepared for adoption after the summer holidays," one source told European Pravda.
Among the issues preventing agreement are sanctions on the Russian fishing industry, where member states want to significantly soften the quotas proposed by the European Commission, the proposed entry ban on Russian combatants, and individual sanctions against Russian nationals, including Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church.
Under the European Commission's plan, the EU's 21st sanctions package must be adopted by 15 July, the deadline for updating the Russian oil price cap.
The EU currently applies a price cap introduced under previous sanctions packages. It is calculated using the average oil price over the previous six months minus 15% and is updated every six months.
The current price cap on Russian oil is set at US$44.1 per barrel and was introduced on 15 January 2026. The next revision is due on 15 July.
Given the sharp rise in global oil prices, the formula would raise the next price cap to around US$75 per barrel, potentially providing Russia with substantial additional revenue to finance its war against Ukraine.
This is why all EU member states recognise the importance of freezing the current price cap in time.
At the request of maritime states whose economies depend heavily on shipping and related services, including Greece, Malta and Cyprus, the proposed duration of the freeze is expected to be reduced from six months to three or four months.
Background:
- In early June, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled the EU's 21st sanctions package.
- Shortly afterwards, Bulgaria announced that it will block the package because Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church was included in the proposed sanctions list. Italy later joined Bulgaria in raising similar objections.
- The proposed EU entry ban on Russian combatants may be removed from the 21st sanctions package.
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