Ukrainian strikes drive Russian oil refining to lowest level in 21 years

A wave of Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure has reduced Russia's oil refining output to its lowest level in more than 21 years.

Source: Bloomberg, citing EA Analytics data

Details: Since the beginning of the month, Russian oil refineries have processed an average of 3.91 million barrels of crude oil per day, the lowest level since March 2005. That is more than 1.4 million barrels per day below the average recorded a year earlier.

The decline in output has prompted Russia to ban most diesel exports until the end of July, in addition to previously imposed restrictions on exports of petrol and jet fuel.

Reduced diesel exports from Russia, one of the world's key suppliers, have pushed prices to multi-year highs amid an already tight market affected by supply disruptions from the Middle East.

According to Bloomberg's calculations, based on public statements by Ukraine and Russia, Ukrainian forces have carried out around 50 strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure over the past 100 days, hitting at least 24 of the country's 34 major oil refineries.

As Russia no longer publishes official refinery statistics, EA Analytics estimates refining volumes using satellite monitoring of oilfields and storage tanks, as well as real-time cargo flow tracking.

Background:

• Ukrainian drone strikes may have disabled between 20% and 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity.
• According to a Financial Times analysis, fuel shortages are already affecting 50 million Russians, or around 35% of the country's population. By 8 July, local authorities or retailers had introduced fuel sales restrictions in the majority of Russian regions.

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