Türkiye may turn away from Russian wheat

A record wheat harvest in Türkiye will reduce the impact on its market from the restrictions placed on Russia regarding shipping through the Sea of Azov as Türkiye will be able to manage without Russian grain supplies.

Source: Latifundist.сom, a Ukrainian agribusiness media portal

Details: Participants in the Turkish market estimate the country's 2026 wheat harvest at around 25 million tonnes, significantly above the current US Department of Agriculture forecast of 22.5 million tonnes, the portal reported.

Some market operators even suggest that, with a harvest of this size, Türkiye could become a net exporter of wheat. Meanwhile, wheat imports in the 2026/27 season are forecast at only around 3 million tonnes, compared with the USDA's estimate of 5.5 million tonnes.

In this context, Turkish grain importers appear largely untroubled by Russia's temporary restrictions on shipping through the Sea of Azov, analysts at ASAP Agri noted.

It was reported earlier that Russia has temporarily suspended shipping through the Don-Azov Canal, a shipping route connecting the Don River with the Sea of Azov.

Russia's largest grain-producing regions, Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai, are located along the Sea of Azov.

The second-largest Russian port on the Black Sea basin is also located on the coast of the Kerch Strait.

This route is particularly important for transporting Russian grain by coaster to ports in Türkiye's Sea of Marmara region. However, the expected reduction in Türkiye's grain import needs is likely to lessen the impact of possible logistical disruptions on the local market, the analysts note.

Background:

• It was previously reported that Russia is preparing to reroute grain shipments away from the Sea of Azov following Ukrainian drone attacks on tankers, ferries, tugboats and other vessels. Around a quarter of Russia's grain exports pass through the Sea of Azov.
• On the night of 13-14 July, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces damaged five tankers, five dry cargo vessels and one tugboat, bringing the total to 116 vessels struck by drones over nine days.

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