Estonian intelligence reports on impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russia's economy

Successful Ukrainian airstrikes on Russia, with new targets including Wildberries warehouses, are causing significant damage to the Russian economy, as indicated in a report by the Estonian Defence Forces' intelligence center.

Source: Estonian intelligence review cited by ERR, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The report notes that such attacks are worsening the business climate in Russia: according to the Central Bank of Russia, the relevant index fell to -3.6 points in July, the lowest level since mid-2022.

"Although [Russian] President Putin again tried this week to create the impression that the Russian economy is doing relatively well – for example, by claiming 0.3% growth in May – Ukraine's long-range strikes are changing this reality," Estonian intelligence said. [N.B. Ukrainska Pravda does not recognise Putin as president – ed.]

The report recalls that over the past seven days, a new category of targets has been added: warehouses of the company Wildberries, which were struck in Moscow and Tambov oblasts, as well as in Krasnodar Krai and Stavropol Krai.

"A significant portion of Russia's population uses the services of Wildberries and its competitor Ozon, so Ukrainian attacks have a considerable effect in addition to direct economic losses, which may reach up to US$2 billion. The impact of Ukrainian strikes is underscored by the fact that in 2025, the total value of goods sold by Wildberries amounted to approximately 3% of the Russian Federation's gross domestic product (GDP)," the report states.

In addition, the intelligence center noted that Ukraine, as part of Operation Molochka, continues to carry out intensive medium-range strikes against Russian shipping in the Azov and Black Seas.

The main targets of Ukrainian attacks are Russian vessels supplying goods to the occupied Crimean Peninsula, as well as road transport used for the same purpose.

"The volume of road transport heading to Crimea by land decreased by 70% in June, and strict restrictions on civilian traffic have now been introduced on roads leading to the peninsula. According to [Robert] Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, attacks on ferries have reduced the capacity of the Kerch ferry crossing by 75%," the intelligence center reported.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones are deliberately targeting Crimea's energy infrastructure: since early July, more than 100 energy facilities on the peninsula have been successfully struck.

As a result, energy consumption restrictions have been introduced across the region, and more than 50% of the population is experiencing prolonged power outages.

The Russian occupying authorities in Crimea have acknowledged that they are unable to ensure regular fuel supplies or establish blackout schedules.

Background:

• Recently, Estonian intelligence also noted that Russia is increasingly tightening control over its population amid fears of rising discontent.
• The intelligence center added that Russia is responding to Ukraine's successful strikes by intensifying its information warfare against the West.

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