Estonian intelligence: Russia intensifying information warfare amid Ukrainian strikes

Russia is responding to Ukrainian successful strikes on oil refineries and other infrastructure inside Russia by stepping up its information warfare against the West.

Source: Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Head of the Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defence Forces, during a briefing at Estonia's Ministry of Defence, as cited by Estonian public broadcaster ERR and reported by European Pravda

Details: According to Kiviselg, Russia has been reacting strongly to Ukraine's successful long-range strikes.

"They use hostile anti‑Western rhetoric, bringing in threats and demagoguery. The main accusation is that Ukraine's success is due to Western aid and support," he said.

The intelligence chief added that, as part of these narratives, Russia has also targeted the Baltic states and Finland, claiming that these countries allow Ukraine to use their airspace to carry out strikes against Russia. Moscow has also alleged that the Baltic states are planning the mass deportation of their Russian-speaking populations and that nuclear weapons will be deployed in Lithuania or Finland.

In addition, the Kremlin has increasingly begun describing the conflict not as a "special military operation" but as a full-scale war, arguing that several European countries and the United States are supporting Ukraine with intelligence, equipment and weapons.

Kiviselg noted that, in support of false claims made by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Grigory Lukiyantsev, Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department for Human Rights and Multilateral Cooperation, claimed on 7 July that the Baltic states are preparing the mass deportation of Russian-speaking residents, which Kiviselg said is clearly untrue.

"All these statements serve coordinated information‑operation goals, likely aimed at creating fear of escalation in the West and weakening unity in continued support for Ukraine," Kiviselg said.

Quote: "In this light we can also view recent public discussions about possible Russian provocations or even military preparations towards the Baltic states. At present, this should be seen as part of Russia's information warfare aimed at influencing Western societies. We still see no military preparations from Russia to carry out an operation in the Baltics or this region in the near future."

Background:

• The US has warned Warsaw that Moscow may be considering an armed provocation against Poland to "test NATO's resolve".
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also expressed concern about a possible Russian provocation intended to "test NATO's resolve".
• Earlier, Latvia's intelligence service warned that Russia could stage provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, including drone attacks and other hybrid actions, in an attempt to pressure NATO countries into ending their support for Ukraine.

Subscribe on Patreon to back our journalism long-term.