Novorossiysk oil exports have been falling for fifth week, says Bloomberg

Oil shipments from a key Russian port have been falling for a fifth consecutive week amid the threat of Ukrainian strikes: in the seven days to 16 August, not a single cargo of oil was loaded at the key oil terminal in Novorossiysk.

Source: Bloomberg

Details: Russian oil export volumes continued to fall sharply amid actual and potential drone strikes in Black Sea, dropping to their lowest level since late April.

The decline deepened last week, when no oil cargoes were loaded at the key Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Shipments have now been falling for five weeks in a row, with the drop over that period the steepest for any comparable period since the start of the war in Ukraine.

In the four weeks to 16 August, exports fell to 3.58 million barrels per day, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Shipments had previously risen as Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries left more crude available for export, but that increase is now stalling.

A new wave of strikes on oil refineries in recent weeks has not had the same effect, possibly because Ukraine has also targeted vessels and ports used to export oil.

One tanker that was moored at the Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk during the 12 August attack was still at the berth in satellite images from 17 August. Other berths at the port were brought back into operation over the weekend.

The damage is also affecting Russian oil production. Estimates from secondary sources published by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) show that output fell last month to 8.89 million barrels per day, the lowest level in the past six years.

That is almost 1 million barrels per day below the production level allowed under Russia's long-term agreement with its OPEC+ allies.

Even after the recent decline, however, Russian seaborne oil exports remain relatively high.

Shipments over the past four weeks are only slightly below the average since the start of the year, while volumes so far in 2026 are well above the average for every year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Background: Oil prices have risen amid worsening prospects for a peace agreement between the US and Iran and new supply risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

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