Ukraine's maize exports have plummeted by almost 85%

From 1 to 27 August, Ukraine exported almost 1.73 million tonnes of agricultural products, compared with 3.29 million tonnes during the same 27-day period in July. Maize exports fell particularly sharply, by 84.3% to 190,000 tonnes.

Source: a weekly market review by Spike Brokers, a brokerage company

Details: The physical volume of exports fell by 1.56 million tonnes, or 47.5%, over the month.

The decline in value terms was notably smaller: exports amounted to US$1.06 billion in the first 27 days of August, compared with US$1.42 billion over the same period in July, a 25.6% decrease. In other words, export volumes almost halved, while their value fell by about a quarter.

Grain accounted for the bulk of the decline in exports.

Combined exports of wheat, maize and barley fell from 2.43 million tonnes in July to 740,000 tonnes in August, down 69.5%. Their share of total agricultural exports narrowed from 73.9% to 42.9%.

Wheat shipments totalled 486,600 tonnes, down 49.8%; maize exports stood at 190,700 tonnes, down 84.3%; and barley exports amounted to 62,600 tonnes, down 74.5%. The absence of July-level maize volumes was the single biggest factor behind the overall fall in tonnage.

Rapeseed and processed products

Rapeseed exports rose sharply in August. Exports totalled 255,200 tonnes, compared with just 11,800 tonnes during the 27 days of July. Rapeseed's share of total exports increased from 0.4% to 14.8%.

Ukraine shipped 69,400 tonnes of rapeseed oil, compared with 15,200 tonnes a month earlier, an increase of more than 4.5 times.

Exports of processed products declined, but far less sharply than grain.

The three main vegetable oils – sunflower, rapeseed and soybean – accounted for 234,000 tonnes, only 16.7% less than in July. Sunflower and soybean meal totalled 153,800 tonnes, down 6.4%.

Within the group, the figures diverged significantly: sunflower oil exports fell by 42.5% to 131,300 tonnes, while sunflower meal exports rose by 28.0% to 83,100 tonnes.

Geography and export methods

The geography of exports also changed. In August, the largest destinations by physical volume were Germany at 195,700 tonnes, Italy at 159,700 tonnes, Poland at 151,900 tonnes, the Netherlands at 147,200 tonnes and Spain at 125,300 tonnes.

In July, Türkiye was the largest destination, receiving 544,800 tonnes. In August, that figure fell by 79% to 114,000 tonnes. Germany, by contrast, increased its imports of Ukrainian products nearly fourfold, largely due to rapeseed.

In addition, road transport intensity has risen by 11.3% since the beginning of August, while rail grain transport fell by 42%.

This fall was driven by reduced rail activity towards ports because of the blockade, with traffic down 95.5% compared with July.

Activity towards the border, by contrast, increased 2.4 times.

Background:

• Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, has warned that without government support to maintain farmers' financial stability, the area sown for the next harvest could shrink by 5-7 million hectares.
• Vysotskyi also said that a prolonged blockade of Ukrainian ports could push global agricultural product prices up by as much as 30%.

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