Ukraine's Defence Intelligence explains why Russia is struggling to deploy its Starlink rival
Russia has encountered problems in implementing its Rassvet satellite communications system project, which it presents as a rival to Starlink. In particular, none of the satellites launched has reached its target orbit.
Source: Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU)
Details: DIU said Russia is trying to accelerate the deployment of its Rassvet low-Earth orbit system. So far, the Russians have placed 30 satellites into orbit in two batches, on 23 March and 19 July 2026. Two of the satellites have already deorbited.
"Of the 30 satellites, 26 have settled into stable positions at an altitude of approximately 500-520 km. None has reached the planned altitude of 800 km. The remaining satellites are continuing manoeuvres to reach their target orbit," DIU reported.
Other problems identified by DIU include dependence on foreign components and difficulties in developing compact user terminals. In addition, the third satellite launch planned for 2026 was reportedly cancelled or postponed, according to preliminary information.
According to DIU, each satellite weighs approximately 280 kg and measures 2.7 × 1.8 × 0.6 m.
"One of the system's key technologies is inter-satellite laser communication, which makes it possible to transmit traffic directly between satellites without constantly relying on ground infrastructure," DIU added.
Russia planned to expand its satellite constellation to 47-48 spacecraft by the end of 2026. In 2027, Russia intends to launch another 240 satellites to provide coverage of 94% of its territory, with data transmission speeds of up to 150 Mbps.
DIU said that the constellation is expected to grow to 408 satellites by 2031 and 924 by 2035. Russia uses Soyuz-2.1b rockets launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome to put the satellites into orbit.
The system's ground infrastructure is centred on a main control centre in Moscow, which is responsible for satellite monitoring, laser link operations and traffic routing. A network of ground stations is also planned in Moscow, Murmansk, Anadyr, Rostov-on-Don, Norilsk, Zheleznogorsk and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.
DIU reported that Russia completed testing of its Ultra user terminal in September 2026.
"The declared download speed is up to 650 Mbps, and the device is designed to operate even when its carrier is moving at speeds of up to 250 km/h," the intelligence agency said.
By the end of the year, Russia plans to deliver approximately 1,000 of these devices to customers. In 2027, four more terminal variants are due to be developed – Zemlya, Mini, Prime and Voda – followed by an aviation terminal, Vozdukh, in 2028.
The main contractor for the project is the Russian company Bureau 1440 LLC, which is part of ICS holding company. According to DIU, at least 46 Russian and three Belarusian companies are involved in the production network.
"Twenty-two companies, including Bureau 1440, are not under sanctions," the intelligence agency stressed.
A key manufacturer of critical components is the Kaliningrad-based Fakel Design Bureau, which produces low-thrust engines and propulsion systems for satellites.
"Meanwhile, Rassvet's technological base depends on imports of electronic components from China, particularly for antenna arrays, ground stations and terminals," DIU reported.
The project is overseen by Roscosmos head Dmitry Bakanov. Before his appointment, he headed the Gonets Satellite System joint-stock company, which worked with British company OneWeb on deploying satellite internet infrastructure in Russia.
After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, OneWeb ended its cooperation with Russia.
Quote: "Meanwhile, it cannot be ruled out that during their previous cooperation, the Russian side may have gained access to certain technical developments and technologies that it subsequently used to create its own system."
Details: DIU also noted that the Russian Fakel Design Bureau had previously manufactured components for OneWeb satellites, including SPT-50M engines. The company now produces critical components for Rassvet satellites.
Background:
- It was previously reported that 13 of the 16 satellites in the second batch of Russia's Rassvet system had reached an altitude of approximately 508 km and stabilised there. However, this is an intermediate altitude, as the originally planned orbit is approximately 800 km.
- DIU also released information on 49 Russian and Belarusian companies involved in developing Rassvet. According to the intelligence agency, Russia plans to use the system for military communications, drone control and integration into the targeting system for missile weapons.
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