One name on the ballot and two potential challengers: How Zelenskyy is trying to keep the generals out of politics
In mid-June, one of the state residences outside Kyiv was unexpectedly busy.
Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, the authorities have rarely used such facilities because of security restrictions.
This time, however, a secluded government residence was chosen, as the country's most influential officials gathered for an important and confidential discussion.
Those present included President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the head of his office Kyrylo Budanov and his deputy for security affairs Oleh Tatarov. Representing parliament was Davyd Arakhamiia, while the government was represented by Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Also attending from the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine was its secretary, Rustem Umierov.
As Ukrainska Pravda previously reported, Arakhamiia had spent several months promoting the idea of holding a major strategic session for the country's top leadership. However, the meeting at the residence was not that strategic session. For one thing, several key figures were absent, including Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko and Chair of the parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk.
Even with such a small group of participants, the meeting lasted around four hours. But the most significant part came during the final half-hour, when the discussion turned to elections and the realities of high-stakes politics.
It was then that those present set out their positions on what each of them wanted next, where they saw their own political future, what would need to happen to achieve it, and who would have to be persuaded not to run for certain offices, so that these discussions – and a plan to hold elections in November – could become a reality.
The inner circle
The impromptu summit at a government residence outside Kyiv vividly illustrates just how much Ukraine's leadership has changed since the resignation of Andrii Yermak, former head of Zelenskyy's office.
As recently as last autumn, it would have been almost impossible to imagine a meeting of this level taking place without Andrii Yermak present. The very idea of holding such a discussion without him seemed inconceivable. Yet events have shown that it is entirely possible.
Moreover, it is precisely in Yermak's absence that the president has begun speaking with his team in far more substantive terms. Rather than discussing abstract political prospects, the conversations have turned to specific configurations of a future government.
The strategic discussion focused on three key questions: whether to hold elections; if so, when; and who might take part in a potential election campaign.
The answer to the first question was debated on the basis of fresh confidential opinion polling conducted in June, the results of which had been placed on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's desk.
The figures reportedly came as an unexpectedly encouraging surprise for the president.
According to Ukrainska Pravda's sources who have seen the polling, Zelenskyy appears to have reversed the long-running trend of gradually declining approval ratings. After months of steady erosion, the latest surveys were the first to record a modest but consistent increase in public support.
The polling also indicated that, among respondents who had already decided how they would vote, around 33% would back the incumbent president in the first round.
His main potential challenger is Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to the United Kingdom and former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who is supported by around 22% of decided voters.
Another potential candidate whose ratings have been rising steadily in recent months is Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Office of the President. Nearly 14% of respondents said they would support him in the first round.
Members of the governing team attribute these shifting political dynamics primarily to improvements on the battlefield.
Since the spring of 2026, Ukraine has increasingly seized the initiative. Almost every day, Ukrainians wake up to reports of strikes on Russian oil refineries, military industry facilities, ammunition depots and logistics hubs in occupied Crimea or Ukraine's south. Videos of Ukrainian drones reaching deep into Russia's rear have become a routine part of the daily news cycle.
As the successes of Ukraine's defence forces have become more visible, so too has the president's standing as Supreme Commander-in-Chief, a role in which many Ukrainians associate him personally with those military achievements.
The positive trend reportedly encouraged Zelenskyy to such an extent that, during the meeting at the residence, his team seriously discussed the possibility of holding a presidential election as early as late autumn this year.
The logic was straightforward: while the president's ratings are improving, it may be worth taking advantage of the moment and seeking re-election before the political landscape shifts again.
There are, however, two major obstacles to such an operation. Both wear a general's uniform: General Zaluzhnyi and General Budanov.
According to the private polling presented at the meeting – commissioned by the Presidential Office from a Ukrainian polling company – the first-round numbers were favourable for the president. Zelenskyy was credited with around 34% support, compared with 28% for Zaluzhnyi and 12% for Budanov. The second-round projections, however, were considerably less encouraging for Zelenskyy.
In a head-to-head contest with Zaluzhnyi, the president would currently lose by roughly 32% to 37%, although the trend is said to be moving in Zelenskyy's favour.
Against Budanov, Zelenskyy would narrowly prevail – but only within the margin of statistical error, by approximately 34% to 32%.
In other words, regardless of which of the two generals reached the second round, the president would have no guarantee of victory.
That is why the meeting of the president's inner circle was about more than simply deciding whether to hold elections. It was also an attempt to determine whether a political scenario might be possible in which at least one of the country's two most popular military figures could be persuaded not to enter the presidential race.
The general who never said "No"
One of the practical objectives of the meeting at the government residence was not only to discuss the elections themselves, but also to gauge whether Kyrylo Budanov could envisage a political arrangement in which he would not become a rival to Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
According to Ukrainska Pravda sources, there is an influential group within the governing team, led by Davyd Arakhamiia and others, that considers the optimal scenario to be one in which Zelenskyy wins a second presidential term while Budanov, for example, becomes Chair of Parliament following the parliamentary elections.
The logic behind this arrangement is straightforward.
After the next election, the president is unlikely to enjoy a single-party majority in parliament. As a result, he would be forced to focus primarily on the constitutional powers of the presidency: foreign policy, the war and national security.
"It is important for us that Zelenskyy remains the person who can secure from our Western partners the resources they have promised him. If someone new comes in, they'll all try to wriggle out of those commitments," one senior government official explained to Ukrainska Pravda several weeks before the gathering at the state residence.
Meanwhile, according to sources within the president's team, a powerful chair of the new parliament would gradually be able to build his own political influence, strengthen his institutional position and eventually emerge as the natural presidential candidate once Zelenskyy's term comes to an end.
Whether the president personally proposed precisely this arrangement to Budanov during the meeting remains unknown to Ukrainska Pravda. Nor is it clear what response, if any, he received.
However, several of the sources say that throughout his time working alongside the Presidential Office, Budanov has consistently avoided giving any direct answers about his political ambitions.
He neither says "yes" nor "no". In effect, General Budanov appears determined to preserve the greatest possible room for manoeuvre.
There are sound pragmatic reasons for such an approach. Even if Budanov were to agree not to run, that alone would not solve the Presidential Office's principal problem.
There would still be the factor of Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
Budanov would have little reason to abandon his own political prospects in Zelenskyy's favour unless the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were to make the same decision. Why withdraw from the race if the president's strongest potential rival is still running?
That question, it seems, is not confined to Budanov alone. Indeed, almost immediately after the meeting at the government residence, the Presidential Office shifted its attention to discussions with Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
The general who did say "No"
The formal reason for summoning Ukraine's ambassador in the UK back to Kyiv presented itself almost by chance: the UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer was preparing to resign.
As the United Kingdom is one of Ukraine's key strategic partners, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ambassador Valerii Zaluzhnyi devoted the first part of their one-to-one meeting at the beginning of last week to discussing the political situation in London and its possible implications for UK–Ukraine relations.
Later, however, according to Ukrainska Pravda sources close to both participants, the president turned to the subject that had been the real reason for inviting Zaluzhnyi back to Kyiv.
Zelenskyy said that the situation on the battlefield had recently been developing positively, society remained sufficiently united, and a window of opportunity had therefore opened for holding elections.
The main objective, the president continued, was to ensure that the elections did not trigger a new internal division. That meant avoiding the risks posed by a direct political contest between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi.
The president then asked the former Commander-in-Chief a straightforward question: "If elections are held this autumn, will you run?"
According to Ukrainska Pravda sources, the answer was straightforward, as well.
"Yes. I will."
The conversation continued for some time afterwards, but Zelenskyy did not even attempt to offer Zaluzhnyi an alternative career path – it would have served no purpose.
According to sources within the government, the Office had been prepared to discuss not only diplomatic appointments but virtually any senior state position, including that of prime minister.
Zaluzhnyi, in turn, sought to explain his position. He said that he had never aspired to a political career, but that many people had placed their hopes in him, and he could not explain to them why he should disregard the trust they had invested in him.
The president and the general shook hands and parted ways.
But that was only the first act.
Shortly afterwards, while Zaluzhnyi was still in Kyiv, other negotiators were sent to meet him: Rustem Umierov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, and Davyd Arakhamiia, leader of the president's parliamentary faction.
They went over almost exactly the same arguments against Zaluzhnyi running: the risk of deepening divisions within society, the dangers of an overly confrontational election campaign and the potential consequences for the state. Zaluzhnyi's answer did not change.
By then, even the Office's most experienced negotiators had run out of arguments. As they were leaving, however, they made one final request: "Brother, just think it over one more time."
After Zaluzhnyi left Kyiv, it became clear that the Office's summer attempt to relaunch the political process and organise elections this autumn had run into a serious obstacle.
A plan that only a few weeks previously had looked like a swift political blitzkrieg was now turning into a prolonged war of attrition.
On the one hand, Zelenskyy sees a window of opportunity for holding elections, even though the practical challenges surrounding their organisation remain unresolved. After a long period of decline, his approval ratings have begun to recover, while Ukraine's successes on the battlefield have created a far more favourable political environment for the government than the Mindichgate scandal or the controversies surrounding Yermak's fortune-tellers.
On the other hand, the president has no guarantee of winning an election. On the contrary, either of the two popular generals appears capable of defeating him.
Nor is Zaluzhnyi himself in quite as unassailable a political position as it may seem.
His approval rating remains high, but it no longer shows the momentum it enjoyed immediately after he was dismissed as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Politics is unforgiving to those who remain absent from the public spotlight for too long.
Meanwhile, Kyrylo Budanov's ratings continue to rise. Unlike Zaluzhnyi, he remains a daily presence in the news, and that alone makes the next election even less predictable.
Ultimately, if both generals decide to enter the presidential race, they will inevitably end up competing with one another. That is the paradox of the current situation: none of the key players wants to give up their chance, and as a result they have all become locked in a state of mutual restraint.
In turn, this could unexpectedly open the way for a "third challenger" to reach the second round – someone like Oleksandr Usyk, who today is hardly regarded by anyone as a frontrunner.
Roman Kravets, Roman Romaniuk, Ukrainska Pravda
Translated by Myroslava Zavadska
Edited by Shoël Stadlen