ISW: Only West-backed Ukrainian military can deter future Russian aggression once truce is established

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that if a truce is established, a strong Ukrainian military supported by the West will be capable of deterring future Russian aggression and ensuring the security of both Ukraine and Europe.

Source: ISW

Quote: "European and NATO officials emphasised that a strong Ukrainian military backed by European security guarantees remains the most effective deterrent against future Russian aggression to ensure long-term peace in Ukraine and Europe."

Details: In an interview with Ukrainian media outlet New Voice (NV) on 5 April, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Ukraine’s own armed forces must form the "first level" of its security guarantees, describing them as the country's "first line of defence in deterrence".

Rutte also noted that Ukraine’s European allies – notably France, the UK and Italy – are exploring mechanisms to provide security guarantees to Ukraine once a peace agreement is reached.

The French General Staff also stressed that Ukrainian troops are the main guarantee of Ukraine's security for sustainable peace.

The French General Staff added that France and the United Kingdom will work to identify and develop "reassurance operations" to deter Russia from future aggression after a potential peace agreement is reached.

Quote: "ISW continues to assess that a strong Ukrainian military backed by Western security guarantees remains the most vital component of a post-war European security architecture, guaranteeing a sustainable peace in Ukraine and deterring future Russian aggression.

Russian demands for Ukraine's 'demilitarisation' such that Ukraine is unable to defend itself against future Russian aggression are counter to US President Donald Trump's efforts to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine."

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 5 April:

• European and NATO officials emphasised that a strong Ukrainian military backed by European security guarantees remains the most effective deterrent against future Russian aggression to ensure long-term peace in Ukraine and Europe.
• Ukraine's European partners continue preliminary technical discussions about a possible future peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the only plant in Russia that produces fibre optic cables that are vital for Russian forces' fibre optic drones.
• Ukraine's European partners continue to provide technical support to Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk and in Kursk Oblast.

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