ISW: Russia presumably wants to create buffer zone in Sumy Oblast and launch offensive on Sumy

Olha Hlushchenko - 10 April, 04:30

Front line in the Sumy-Kursk oblasts border area. Screenshot: ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that the Russians are planning to create a buffer zone in Sumy Oblast and launch an offensive on the city of Sumy.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russian forces continue to marginally advance in the Sumy-Kursk Oblast border area, but the Russian force grouping in the area will likely be unable to launch a major offensive operation against the city of Sumy in the near term without receiving significant reinforcements."

Details: General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said in an interview that Russian troops had intensified their offensive on "all major fronts" and had launched offensives in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.

ISW has observed gradual but consistent Russian gains and attacks along the Volodymyrivka-Zhuravka-Novenke line (north and northeast of the city of Sumy) in northern Sumy Oblast and Russia's ongoing efforts to push Ukrainian forces back from the remaining positions south of Sudzha in Russia's Kursk Oblast since early March 2025.

Russian forces advanced rapidly in Kursk Oblast in early March 2025 when the United States temporarily suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, but Russian gains slowed as Ukrainian forces retreated from Sudzha and subsequently resumed using HIMARS long-range weapons.

Russian troops pushed Ukrainian forces out of Sudzha in mid-March 2025 and continued to attack Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast and recently began to advance into northern Sumy Oblast.

Quote: "The Russian military command is likely attempting to form a buffer zone along the international border in Sumy Oblast, although Russian commanders may intend to press further into Sumy Oblast and towards the city of Sumy in the future.

ISW previously assessed that Russian forces would not attempt to advance further into northern Sumy Oblast or attack the city of Sumy so long as Ukrainian forces maintained their salient in Kursk Oblast."

Details: Analysts noted that Russia's recent attacks on northern Sumy Oblast indicate that the Russian military command might try to take advantage of the destruction of the Ukrainian advance in Kursk Oblast to create a buffer zone in Sumy Oblast or launch an offensive against the city of Sumy and make it uninhabitable for civilians.

Quote: "Putin likely intends to use a buffer zone in northern Sumy Oblast and an offensive towards the city of Sumy to justify expanding his claims over Ukrainian territory.

Putin may intend to leverage further advances in Sumy Oblast and pressure on the city of Sumy to demand that Ukraine cede part of Sumy Oblast to Russia during future peace negotiations.

The informational and political pressure that a push on the city of Sumy could generate may be more enticing for Putin than advances in other frontline areas."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 9 April:

Russian forces continue to marginally advance in the Sumy-Kursk oblasts border area, but the Russian force grouping in the area will likely be unable to launch a major offensive operation against the city of Sumy in the near term without receiving significant reinforcements.
The Russian military command is likely attempting to form a buffer zone along the international border in Sumy Oblast, although Russian commanders may intend to press further into Sumy Oblast and towards the city of Sumy in the future.
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