Ukraine and EU still figuring out how to preserve balanced trade, Ukraine's trade rep says

The worst-case scenario for trade with the European Union after 6 June, when the autonomous trade measures expire, is a return to the free trade regime that was in place before the full-scale war and the introduction of the special measures in June 2022.

Source: Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine and Trade Representative of Ukraine, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine

Details: "We will make every effort to ensure that there are no actual changes on 6 June," Kachka promised at the conference Trade Wars: The Art of Defence.

Kachka said that an agreement was reached last year that, from 6 June 2025, the special measures would cease to operate, and instead, the European Commission would conduct a review with Ukraine under Article 29 of the Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union on a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) to increase access for Ukrainian goods to the EU market and for European goods to the Ukrainian market.

"If everything went as planned by the European Commission with the autonomous trade measures, then we have slowed down a little with Article 29 due to a number of external circumstances. But I hope that we will find a solution fairly quickly. If not by 6 June, then as soon as possible after 6 June," Kachka said.

"At least for the time being, while we are negotiating new parameters for the liberalisation of trade in these goods, which have already been fully liberalised, we will have no problems with access to the European Union market," he added.

He noted that the situation in trade is far from as optimistic and friendly as in other areas of cooperation with the EU.

Meanwhile, Kachka believes that even the pre-war trade regime with the EU was quite good because there were no customs duties on industrial goods, and there will be none on most agricultural goods either.

"But it is obvious that for the goods that are most interesting and sensitive to us, autonomous trade measures have been very helpful not only in terms of market access but also in terms of transit. This was relevant until 2023, when our ports were not operating. Now the ports are working, and all exports to third countries are going from our ports, so we have no transit load. Accordingly, these autonomous trade measures, which helped with transit, are no longer so relevant," Kachka noted.

In his opinion, Ukraine and the EU have found a balance in trade for 2023-2024, although Ukraine has a fairly large trade deficit, with imports exceeding exports by almost twice.

"Obviously, how to maintain this balanced trade is now a matter of discussion. Our approach is to leave trade conditions as they are now, perhaps even freer, but at the same time, controlled. We will see what happens – I will not get ahead of myself. We are working constructively with the European Commission, but it is clear that this will be a comprehensive decision covering all the nuances," the Ukrainian trade representative concluded.

Background:

• Earlier, it was reported that in 2024, mutual trade in agricultural products between Ukraine and the European Union grew to US$17 billion, which is the highest figure since the Association Agreement came into force and exceeds the previous record of 2022 (US$16.5 billion) by 3%.
• Last year, Ukraine's main European partners were Spain, Poland, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Romania, France and Belgium. These countries account for 80% of the total domestic trade turnover of agri-food products with the EU.
• Earlier, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that Ukraine is in talks with the European Commission on introducing a transitional period of visa-free trade with the European Union after 5 June. "Last year, an agreement was signed with the European Commission that appropriate changes would be made to Article 29 of the Association Agreement, which would enshrine the relevant trade preferences for our country for the entire duration of the agreement," Shmyhal said.
• On 9 May, Olha Stefanishyna, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration and Minister of Justice, announced that Ukraine and the European Union had not yet begun negotiations on improving the free trade agreement.
• Ukraine warned that the abolition of duty-free trade with the EU could have truly devastating consequences, especially given the uncertainty surrounding military support from the United States.
• The updated terms of trade with the European Union after the end of the economic visa-free regime could cost Ukraine €3.5 billion per year.

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