Ukraine loses key wheat markets in Asia and Africa to Russia

Ukraine has nearly lost its wheat markets in Asia and Africa due to a focus on exports to Europe.

Source: Latifundist

Details: "We lost 70% of the Egyptian market. All Ukrainian exporters reoriented to Europe. We not only missed the opportunity to sell profitably to Egypt but also lost the trust of Egyptian buyers," a representative from Promising International Trading Co. DMCC told the publication.

Traders report that 75% of Tunisia’s imported wheat is Russian, most of the remainder is French, and Ukrainian wheat is almost absent. Ukraine has also lost market shares in Sudan and Ethiopia.

In many African countries, such as Kenya and Nigeria, high-protein wheat (12.5%) is in demand, which Ukrainian wheat often lacks.

"While 11.5% protein is acceptable for most, markets with a 12.5% threshold are dominated by Russia, not us," a spokesperson from Ukrainian agricultural company TAS Agro explained.

Traders highlighted challenges in Asian markets, particularly Bangladesh and Indonesia, where Russia is actively displacing competitors.

"We see Russia selling for rupees in India, engaging in barter and deepening cooperation with China. They hedge risks, anticipating potential new restrictions or currency access issues. In markets like Kenya, Nigeria and Bangladesh, they outcompete others by dumping wheat," TAS Agro noted.

Russian companies reportedly offer deferred payment terms, while Ukrainian firms typically require payment immediately upon vessel loading.

Due to EU restrictions, Ukrainian exporters may need to lower prices and overhaul logistics, Latifundist reports. Previously, traders could consolidate small grain batches for Europe, but they must now focus on larger shipments.

Background: 

• It was reported that Ukraine’s sunflower oil market share in Asia is weakening due to complex logistics, sanctions and competition from cheaper Russian wheat, corn, and Argentine sunflower oil.
• Shipments of Ukrainian sunflower oil to India increased nearly threefold this season (September–March). However, Russian oil dominates, accounting for over 50% of India’s sunflower oil imports.
• It was previously reported that, under the most pessimistic estimates, Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest could fall by 10% to about 51 million tonnes, down from 56.7 million tonnes in 2024. Minister of Agrarian Policy Vitalii Koval predicted a 10% decrease in grain yield and a 5% drop in oilseeds.

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