Russia's fossil fuel revenues hit post-invasion low in second quarter of 2025

Russia’s quarterly fossil fuel revenues have fallen to their lowest levels since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Source: Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in its monthly report

Quote from CREA: "Russian fossil fuel revenues in the second quarter of 2025 dropped by 18% year-on-year – the lowest in a quarter since the invasion of Ukraine. This occurred despite an 8% increase in volumes exported in Q2 compared to Q1 of 2025."

Details: In the second quarter of 2025, Russian fossil gas exports to Europe continued to decline, deepening the downturn that began in the first quarter after the end of gas transit through Ukraine. Total monthly exports fell from 3.32 billion cubic metres in April to 3.01 billion in June, a 9.4% drop quarter-on-quarter.

In June, Belgium’s purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased by 12% in volume terms compared to the previous month, totalling €300 million.

Over half of Russia’s seaborne oil exports in June were transported by G7+ tankers, a 6-percentage-point increase from May. Since January, the G7+ share in Russian oil transport has risen from 36% to 56%.

In June 2025, 435 vessels exported Russian oil and petroleum products. Of these, 153 were shadow fleet tankers, a third of them at least 20 years old.

Quote: "Older ‘shadow’ tankers transporting Russian oil and petroleum products across EU Member States’ exclusive economic zones, territorial waters, or maritime straits raise environmental and financial concerns due to their age, questionable maintenance records, and insurance coverage. Their insurance potentially lacks sufficient protection & indemnity (P&I) coverage to cover the cost in the event of an oil spill or other catastrophe.

In the event of accidents, coastal countries may bear the financial burden of cleanup, as well as the repercussions of damage to their marine ecosystems. The cost of cleanup and compensation resulting from an oil spill from tankers with dubious insurance could amount to over €1 billion for coastal country’s taxpayers.

Since introducing sanctions until the end of June 2025, thorough enforcement of the price cap would have cut Russia’s export revenues by 11% (€39.51 billion). In June 2025 alone, full enforcement of the price cap would have reduced revenues by 5% (approximately €0.55 billion)."

Background: 

• CREA’s May 2025 report noted that Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues had fallen to their lowest level since the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that in June, Russia’s oil and oil product exports remained at a five-year low for the season, raising concerns about its ability to maintain production capacity.
• Sweden and Denmark, following Germany’s lead, have begun requiring tankers to present insurance documents when passing through their territorial waters in the Baltic Sea to curb Russia’s shadow fleet operations.
• The size of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers has grown from fewer than 100 vessels at the beginning of 2022 to between 300 and 600 by early 2025, depending on the counting method.

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