Withdrawing Ukrainian troops from Donetsk Oblast would allow Russia to advance on Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that if Ukrainian troops were to be fully withdrawn from Donetsk Oblast as part of an agreement with Russia, the Russians would gain control of the "fortress belt", the main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014, as well as more advantageous positions for a future offensive on Kharkiv and Dnopropetrovsk oblasts in the event of renewed hostilities. 

Source: ISW report on 8 August

Details: Analysts believe that the cession of the remaining territory in Donetsk Oblast as a prerequisite for a ceasefire without a final peace settlement would provide Russian troops with exceptionally good opportunities to renew attacks on much more favourable terms, having avoided a long and bloody fight for the ground.  

Accepting such a demand would force Ukraine to surrender its "fortress belt", the main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014, with no guarantees that the fighting will not resume.

The report noted that the 50-kilometre fortress belt has served as a central obstacle to the Kremlin’s territorial ambitions over the last 11 years. It is made up of four major cities and several towns and settlements that stretch north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway. In the last 11 years, Ukraine has been putting in time, money and effort into reinforcing the fortress belt and establishing critical defence infrastructure in and around these cities.

Analysts highlighted that the Russians have not been able to take the fortress belt in the 3.5 years of the full-scale war and that such an operation "would likely be a multi-year effort with significant personnel and materiel losses". 

Ceding Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast will place Russian troops on its borders, which is considerably less defensible than the current line. This would require Ukrainian forces to urgently build massive defensive fortifications along the border areas of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, whose geography is poorly suited to act as a defensive line.   

The report mentioned that any potential Ukrainian defensive lines in this region will come through open fields and that natural barriers such as the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers are too far east to serve as defensive positions for Ukrainian soldiers.

Quote: "Russian positions along the Donetsk-Kharkiv and Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border areas would provide a more advantageous launching point for a future Russian offensive into nearby areas of Kharkiv or Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will almost certainly violate any future ceasefire or peace agreement and renew military aggression against Ukraine in the future unless a peace agreement includes robust monitoring mechanisms and security guarantees for Ukraine."

Details: Analysts presume that the Russian forces will likely utilise their positions along the border of Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts and future advances from Kupiansk to threaten Kharkiv in the event of renewed fighting.

ISW notes that Putin maintains his uncompromising demands for Ukraine’s capitulation and remains uninterested in good-faith negotiations. Furthermore, the Kremlin does not set the domestic information conditions necessary for the Russian people to accept a settlement short of a complete victory of Russia over Ukraine. 

Background: 

• US President Donald Trump has said he is planning to meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on 15 August 2025 in the US state of Alaska.
• Earlier, the White House stated that Trump is ready to meet with both Putin and Zelenskyy. However, on Friday 8 August Trump suggested that he could only meet Putin to start. 
• The Wall Street Journal stated that Putin had told Trump that Russia would cease hostilities in Ukraine in exchange for significant territorial concessions from Kyiv and international recognition of the occupied territories. The agency’s sources reported that the proposal consisted of two stages. In the first stage, Ukraine would withdraw its troops from Donetsk and the line of contact would be frozen. Then, in the second stage, Putin and Trump would agree on a final peace plan, which would later be coordinated with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

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