Ukraine risks receiving lowest level of military aid since start of full-scale war – study

New European Union appropriations for aid to Ukraine in 2025 may fall to their lowest level since Russia's invasion in 2022.

Source: Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Details: According to the latest data from the Ukraine Support Tracker study, new commitments of military aid have dropped to their lowest level since the start of the full-scale invasion.

"Europe allocated only about €4.2 billion in new military aid to Ukraine—far too little to offset the halt in US support. At the same time, the disparities within Europe widened," the Kiel Institute said.

"France, Germany and the United Kingdom increased their allocations substantially but remained below the levels seen in the Nordic countries in relative terms. Italy and Spain contributed very little," the study states.

After a record first half of the year, the volume of aid declined sharply over the summer and then again in September and October. A total of €32.5 billion in new commitments has been recorded for 2025 so far, compared with an average of €41.6 billion in 2022–2024, the authors noted.

"After a record-high first half of 2025, military aid had already fallen sharply over the summer – a trend that has now continued into September and October. At the current rate, military aid allocations fall short of what would be needed to replace missing US support," the report says.

Although the average annual level of appropriations in 2022–2024 amounted to roughly €41.6 billion (including Europe, the US and other donors), only €32.5 billion has been allocated so far in 2025.

To reach previous levels, a further €9.1 billion would need to be allocated by year-end – requiring monthly commitments twice as high as those seen in recent months, the publication notes.

"Based on the data available through October, Europe has not been able to sustain the momentum of the first half of 2025," says Professor Christoph Trebesch, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker.

"The recent slowdown makes it difficult for Europe to fully offset the absence of US military aid in 2025. If this slower pace continues in the remaining months, 2025 will become the year with the lowest level of new aid allocations ever for Ukraine since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion in 2022," he argued.

Background:

• Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed Law No. 13573, which provides for an increase of UAH 412.3 billion (about US$9.7 billion) in defence spending.
• On 31 July, the Ukrainian parliament approved Law No. 13573 amending the 2025 Budget, which includes a rise in defence expenditures.
• Ukraine currently covers 40% of the army's needs through its domestic defence industry and has multiplied its weapons production several times over.
• The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine previously reported that next year the country will require at least US$120 billion for defence.
• In the first half of 2025, a quarter of all spending on weapons and equipment was channelled into advance payments from the state budget, leading to an increase in accounts receivable.
• In the summer, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius stated that Germany would provide Ukraine with an additional €1.9 billion in military aid. Under former Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Germany approved an extra €3 billion in military assistance for Ukraine in 2025 and a further €8.3 billion for 2026–2029.
• In April 2024, it was reported that in recent months Europe had caught up with the United States in terms of military support for Ukraine. Europe provided around €42 billion, while the US provided €43.1 billion.

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