Updated 20-point "peace plan" does not oblige Ukraine to give up its aspiration to join NATO

Anastasia Protz — 11 December, 15:27

NATO flag. Photo: Getty Images

The updated 20-point US "peace plan" for Ukraine formally contains no ban on Ukraine's NATO membership and does not oblige Kyiv to renounce its aspiration to join the Alliance. Meanwhile, Washington has declared in a separate document that NATO will not expand further.

Source: Ukrainian media outlet ZN.UA, which reviewed the updated draft

Details: ZN.UA has obtained the "updated" "peace plan" that Washington handed to Kyiv. The journalists say that one of the key non-Ukrainian points – a blanket amnesty for actions committed during the war – has been removed.

The package of proposals consists of four documents:

a 20-point agreement between Ukraine, Russia, the US and Europe
a three-point framework of security assurances for Ukraine
four commitments from the US concerning NATO
a separate 12-point US-Russia agreement.

ZN.UA notes that these texts resemble "conceptual notes" rather than full-fledged international treaties.

Unlike the previous "28-point plan", the new version does not require Ukraine and NATO to legally enshrine Ukraine's non-accession to the Alliance in the Constitution of Ukraine and in NATO's foundational documents. Ukraine also does not assume any obligation not to join NATO.

Meanwhile, in a separate document within the US "peace package", it is declared that NATO will no longer expand or invite Ukraine to membership.

These assurances are reiterated in the first point of the bilateral US-Russia agreement, where the second point states that Washington intends to moderate a dialogue between Russian and NATO leaders aimed at addressing security "concerns", "de-escalation" and "ensuring global security".

Separately, the US promises to oppose any deployment of "NATO troops" on Ukrainian territory.

ZN.UA notes that the legal status of the NATO-related document is unclear.

Quote: "The legal status of the 'NATO document' remains unclear. Whereas in the multilateral '20 points' it is clearly stated that the Agreement is legally binding, the NATO-related document contains no such provision."

Details: In the outlet's view, this could theoretically allow the next US president to cancel these provisions as part of "Trump legacy", just as Trump himself reversed some decisions of his predecessor.

"Does this mean that a future US president may revoke this 'Trump legacy', just as Trump overturned most of Joe Biden's executive orders? If so, then all is not lost for Ukraine," ZN.UA notes.

Background:

An Axios correspondent reported that Ukraine submitted its response to the US side on Wednesday 10 December regarding the "peace plan" that Trump's administration has been working on in recent weeks.
On 9 December, Zelenskyy said that work is now complete on the Ukrainian and European proposals regarding the "peace plan" at the level of national security advisers.
According to the Financial Times, Trump hopes to finalise the peace deal between Ukraine and Russia "by Christmas".

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