Ukraine's National Bank revises 2026 GDP forecast down by 0.4% due to Russian strikes on energy infrastructure

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast down from 2.2% to 1.8%, citing the impact of Russian attacks on the energy sector.

Source: Andrii Pyshnyi, Governor of Ukraine's National Bank, at a press briefing on the NBU Board's monetary policy decisions

Details: The NBU stated that Ukraine's electricity deficit rose to 7% in the fourth quarter of last year and is expected to be 6% in 2026, up from a previously projected 3%.

The central bank has calculated the impact of the electricity deficit caused by Russian strikes on the energy sector as cutting projected 2026 GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points. Were it not for the attacks, the economy would have grown by 2.2%.

"The NBU has slightly lowered its forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.8% due to damaged logistics and a larger-than-expected electricity deficit in recent months," Pyshnyi said.

He added that the difficult situation in the energy sector will continue to constrain business activity for the foreseeable future.

However, the NBU expects that gradual improvements in the energy sector, continued infrastructure recovery and increased private investment will help boost economic growth to around 3-4% in 2027-2028.

Background:

• The NBU has lowered its 2026 inflation forecast, citing the impact of attacks on the energy sector.
• The National Bank has cut its key rate from 15.5% to 15% per annum, the first reduction in a year and a half.

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