Iran conflict could cause Patriot missile shortage for Ukraine – Reuters
Ukraine could face a critical shortage of US-made Patriot air defence missiles as Washington concentrates on the conflict with Iran, while Russia shows no sign of easing its strikes on Ukrainian cities.
Source: Reuters, citing Ukrainian, European and US sources
Details: Since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on Saturday 28 February, Tehran has launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones against Gulf states. The majority were intercepted, including with PAC-3 Patriot missiles – the same interceptors Kyiv depends on to shield key energy sites and military facilities from Russian ballistic attacks.
Lockheed Martin currently produces roughly 600 PAC-3 missiles a year, a figure that already falls short of covering demand from the US and its partners in the Gulf, let alone Ukraine, said Serhii Kuzan, Head of the Kyiv-based Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre.
"It's the very simple mathematics of war," Kuzan said. He noted that the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system, which offers comparable capabilities, has not ramped up production sufficiently to fill the gap.
Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at Oslo University who specialises in missiles, said Gulf countries have accumulated Patriot stockpiles and are unlikely to exhaust them quickly, particularly as Iranian missile attacks appear to be decreasing in intensity. Nevertheless, prolonged hostilities could force them to limit usage more carefully.
Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv argued that a broader supply crunch might be avoided if US and Israeli forces succeed in destroying significant portions of Iran's missile arsenal and launch infrastructure in the coming days.
According to Ukrainian data, Russia – which has significantly expanded its military manufacturing – launched over 700 missiles during its winter campaign targeting Ukraine's energy grid. It fired 32 ballistic missiles in one night last month alone.
Most Patriot interceptors delivered to Ukraine come from European allies under NATO's Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) programme, set up last year to finance purchases of US-made weapons for Kyiv.
Reuters reported that partners have pledged 37 additional PAC-3 missiles since mid-February. A source familiar with the discussions said that Italy has ruled out withdrawing air defence assets from Ukraine to reinforce Gulf states.
Meanwhile, two European diplomats expressed concern that if fighting with Iran continues, delivery timelines under PURL could slip further as the US prioritises its own needs.
A senior Pentagon official acknowledged production-related delays within the PURL programme and warned that constraints could deepen in the event of a prolonged conflict. "We can only crank out so much at a time," the official said.
Quote from Reuters: "The US can assert its right to preempt deliveries to other countries at any time, for any reason.
Although Lockheed Martin is scaling up production of PAC-3s to 2,000 annually under a deal announced in January, that will come too late to address any shortages this year."
Details: Reuters added that the Pentagon has yet to respond to a request for comment regarding future weapons supplies to Ukraine.
Background:
- In February, it was reported that Ukraine will soon receive 35 interceptor missiles for its Patriot air defence systems, thirty of which will be from member states of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (also known as the Ramstein format) and five more from Germany.
- The Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Norway and Sweden have contributed US$500 million to purchase US weapons for Ukraine under the PURL initiative.
- On 12 February it was reported that the UK would join the PURL programme and commit £150 million (US$205 million) as its first contribution.
- Ukraine's ambassador to NATO has listed the countries that have provided Ukraine with the most assistance in purchasing critically needed US weapons, including air defence systems.
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