Lithuanian intelligence says Russia is expanding military units along NATO borders
Lithuania's intelligence services believe that Russia is expanding its military units along the border with NATO, giving them combat experience in Ukraine and preparing to potentially use them as centres in a conflict with the Alliance after the war in Ukraine.
Source: Lithuanian intelligence in its annual security threat assessment, European Pravda reports, citing Reuters
Details: Along the entire border with NATO, brigades are being expanded into divisions, new military formations are being created, and military infrastructure is being developed in Kaliningrad Oblast, which is part of the Leningrad Military District.
According to the intelligence assessment, most of the newly formed units of the Russian Armed Forces are not fully staffed and are being created gradually due to a shortage of personnel, military equipment and infrastructure. The newly formed units and the equipment intended for them are not kept at their permanent bases but are sent to take part in combat operations against Ukraine.
If sanctions are lifted, Russia could be ready for a "wide-scale military conflict" with NATO within six years, the assessment says.
"Russia would likely create not only a 30-50 per cent larger armythan it had before the war but also a relatively modern one. Strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition would be fully restored. Russia would be ready for a conventional military conflict with NATO," the Lithuanian intelligence report states.
Shifting the balance of power in Europe in its favour and the complete subjugation of Ukraine remain Russia's main objectives, the report says.
Russia's defence industrial base has been expanded with the help of China, allowing Moscow to reduce its dependence on Western technologies. After the war, the surplus of weapons will lead to "consequences for global security," the report notes.
The report also mentions parcel explosions in 2024, which Lithuanian officials blamed on Russian secret services.
Lithuanian intelligence believes that as long as Russia devotes most of its resources to the war against Ukraine, its ability to pose a direct military threat to Lithuania and other NATO countries remains limited.
Background:
- Recently, Estonia's intelligence service said in its annual report that Russia has no intention of launching a military attack on any NATO state this year or next year, but will continue rebuilding its armed forces, fearing European rearmament.
- At the end of February, Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned that Russian aggression against countries on NATO's eastern flank would cost those states very dearly.
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