First time in modern history: Russian Central Bank chief says country faces labour shortage

For the first time in its modern history, the Russian economy is facing a shortage of labour and limits on workforce availability, forcing businesses and the authorities to take this reality into account.

Source: Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, at the Moscow Exchange Forum, as reported by Russian media outlet RBC

Quote: "Many may think that the prolonged tightened monetary policy is some kind of anomaly, a situation that is out of the ordinary, because previous periods of high interest rates were linked to a temporary deterioration in external conditions.

And when the situation normalised, we reduced rates fairly quickly. Now the deterioration in external conditions is, you might say, almost permanent – this applies to both exports and imports. Unemployment stands at 2%.

Inflation surged to 10% at the beginning of last year – this is evidence of the economy overheating."

Details: Russia's Ministry of Economic Development had previously forecast that unemployment would reach 2.6% in 2026, and 2.5% and 2.3% in 2027 and 2028 respectively.

Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of Russia, for their part, forecast an average unemployment rate of 2.5% in 2026.

The labour shortage in the medium term (until 2030) could exceed three million workers, according to the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.

According to the Central Bank of Russia, the greatest shortages persist in the agricultural sector and in the manufacturing, energy and water supply sectors.

Russia's Ministry of Labour and labour market analysts have also noted shortages of production personnel, service technicians and technical workers.

Background: Russia's largest oil producer Rosneft reported that its net profit in 2025 fell by 73% to US$3.6 billion due to high interest rates, high taxes on profits and sanctions.

Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!