Estonian officials say Zelenskyy's remarks about possible Russian attack on Baltic states harm cooperation

Estonian politicians have said that remarks by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Russia may be preparing for an attack on the Baltic states do not correspond to their threat assessments and complicate cooperation between allies.

Source: Estonian public broadcaster ERR, as reported by European Pravda

Details: In an interview that aired on the joint 24/7 TV newscast on Sunday evening, Zelenskyy suggested that Russia may be restricting internet access not to suppress criticism of the government, but to prevent the public unrest that could arise from a planned large-scale mobilisation. He said the purpose of such mobilisation could be a large-scale attack on either Ukraine or the Baltic states.

Zelenskyy also expressed doubts when he was asked whether NATO would apply Article 5 on collective defence in the event of an attack on the Baltic states.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told ERR that since the start of the full-scale war in 2022, Ukraine has repeatedly warned that Russia could target other countries as well, specifically naming the Baltic states.

Tsahkna stated that such remarks by an ally do not make cooperation easier. He also said there is no truth in Zelenskyy's remarks.

Quote from Tsahkna: "First, such statements do not correspond to our intelligence information or our assessment of the threat picture. We do not see Russia concentrating its forces or preparing in any way militarily to attack NATO or the Baltic states; rather, it is the opposite. Russia is not in a very strong position on the Ukrainian front, and economically as well."

Details: Tsahkna added that there is no reason to question NATO's Article 5 commitments.

"Certainly it doesn't add strength when US President Trump is critical of European allies in the context of NATO. But that does not mean NATO is incapable of responding, and NATO will absolutely, without any doubt, respond if one or another member state is attacked," Tsahkna said, stressing that Estonia also has its own defence capabilities in addition to the Alliance.

Marko Mihkelson, Chair of the Estonian Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, also said this is not the first time Ukraine's leadership has stated that the Baltic states could be next.

Quote from Mihkelson: "It's as if a finger is being wagged at Europe: look, if we end up in a weaker position or lose, you'll be next – especially the Baltic states. That's clearly unsettling and reinforces Russia's narrative that it is winning, advancing, while you are retreating and losing."

Details: Mihkelson said the issue has also been raised at meetings with Ukrainian representatives. He believes that in the event of serious threats, allies should exchange such messages directly rather than through the media, where they often remain at the level of speculation.

"Zelenskyy emphasised that NATO should be unified and ready to respond to Putin's actions. I agree that no one has done more to undermine the credibility of Article 5 than US President Donald Trump, but the Ukrainian president is also chipping away at it," Mihkelson said.

He added that the Ukrainian president should not contribute to the spread of Russian narratives.

Martin Helme, leader of the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), said there is nothing new in Zelenskyy's message but argued that Estonia itself has contributed to shaping this narrative.

Quote from Helme: "It seems to me that they [the diplomats] have created this narrative themselves. Ever since the war in Ukraine began, the central message of the Reform Party has been that people need to be frightened senseless about Russia, and then, under the cover of that fear, all taxes can be raised and the domestic political opposition can be demonised as Kremlin agents."

Details: Helme believes Zelenskyy's aim in making such remarks is to create a climate of fear that would push allies to provide more military equipment.

"Driving people into endless stress and fear ultimately no longer works to make everyone act in a more focused way to avert the threat of war or plan better; it has turned into rhetorical flailing," Helme said.

Background:

• Russian propagandists have actively promoted the claim that the Baltic states and Poland allowed Ukraine to use their airspace for strikes on Russian ports near St Petersburg, while the Russian Foreign Ministry said it had issued a "warning" to the Baltic states.
• Russia's Defence Ministry also released a list of what it said are locations in Europe where joint UAV production facilities with Ukraine are situated, hinting at possible "retaliatory measures".

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