No threat of Russian attack on Baltic states, Estonian intelligence says

Oleksandr Shumilin, Ulyana Krychkovska — 24 April, 17:05

The national flag of Estonia. Photo: Getty Images

Ants Kiviselg, director of the Estonian Defence Forces (EDF) Military Intelligence Centre, has said he does not see a threat of a Russian attack on the Baltic states.

Source: ERR, an Estonian public broadcaster, citing Kiviselg, as reported by European Pravda

Details: Kiviselg said assessing the risk of aggression is a complex process that requires analysing the current state of the armed forces, the government's political intentions and the feasibility of an attack in the international context.

He said Russia has largely failed to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine. Even where some goals have been met, this happened much later than initially planned.

Kiviselg said he is confident there is currently no indication that Russia could launch an attack either on the Baltic states or NATO more broadly.

Quote: "Even if mobilisation is carried out in Russia, there are no indicators these mobilised units would be directed against NATO states."

More details: However, Kiviselg said EDF, including its Military Intelligence Centre, works daily to ward off a potential war.

While there are no signs of an imminent attack, Kiviselg noted that Russia's leadership is unpredictable and often makes irrational decisions.

Quote: "Rationally speaking, it would make absolutely no sense for the Russian Federation to open a new front elsewhere. But we have seen that the Russian Federation is not always rational in its decisions and may make strategic miscalculations."

Background:

In a recent interview that aired on the joint 24/7 TV newscast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that Russia may be restricting internet access not to suppress criticism of the government, but to prevent the public unrest that could arise from a planned large-scale mobilisation. He said the purpose of such mobilisation could be a large-scale attack on either Ukraine or the Baltic states.
Estonian politicians have said that remarks by Zelenskyy that Russia may be preparing for an attack on the Baltic states do not correspond to their threat assessments and complicate cooperation between allies.
In response to Zelenskyy's remarks, Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė said alarmist rhetoric should be avoided.

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