US reportedly warned Poland that Russia may "test NATO" with hybrid attack

The United States is said to have passed Warsaw a warning that Moscow is considering an armed provocation against Poland to "test NATO's resolve".

Source: The Telegraph and Onet, which are owned by Axel Springer and are part of its Global Reporters Network, as reported by European Pravda

Details: Sources close to the Polish president told Onet that Washington has warned Warsaw that Russia is considering staging an armed provocation against Poland to "test" NATO and force Kyiv's Western partners to suspend aid to Ukraine.

The Telegraph said it could be launched in a matter of months.

According to Onet's sources, provocation scenarios may include drone attacks on critical infrastructure such as power plants, or simulating a massive air attack to force Poland to activate its air defences.

The most radical scenario could be a hybrid attack in the border area – potentially involving Belarusian military personnel as well. Russia could present this as troops having "got lost" due to GPS signal disruptions, or fabricate a "rescue mission" due to a helicopter emergency.

Moscow's calculation may be that Poland – including under US pressure – will refrain from a decisive response. A situation in which the Russians return home after the provocation without consequences could be perceived by the Kremlin as a victory.

Another scenario being considered is that Russia could make its withdrawal from Polish territory conditional on a halt to support for Ukraine.

A source close to President Nawrocki said the US "systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO's eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded".

A second source, an ambassador from a NATO country, confirmed that a Russian provocation against one of the Baltic states or Poland is a serious risk. The same was said by an anonymous source at Poland's Ministry of Defence.

A fourth source, a person from Baltic security circles, confirmed to The Telegraph that such plans are being discussed in Moscow. Another scenario under consideration is portraying the provocation as having "actually been carried out by Ukraine".

In case of a provocation involving a ground operation, a potential incursion is possible from both Belarus and from Kaliningrad Oblast.

Background:

• Latvian intelligence service recently warned that Russia is preparing possible provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, including drone attacks and other hybrid actions, in an effort to force NATO countries to stop supporting Ukraine.
• The Dutch Ministry of Defence suggested in a strategic document that in the event of a pause in the war with Ukraine, Russia may launch a limited operation against a NATO country.
• Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski recently said that Russia may organise a "false flag operation" to justify an attack on a NATO member state.

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