Russia's budget deficit to exceed forecasts by almost US$13 billion – Reuters

Russia's federal budget spending and deficit may exceed official plans by more than RUB 1 trillion (US$12.85 billion).

Source: Reuters

Details: The source – Russia's government budget portal – did not specify the reason for the increase. Reuters suggests it may be linked to rising expenditure on the war against Ukraine.

In 2025, Russia's budget deficit rose almost fivefold compared with the official figure, reaching RUB 5.7 trillion (US$73.2 billion), or 2.6% of GDP – the highest level since the 2020 pandemic.

According to projections, federal spending in 2026 will reach RUB 45.11 trillion (around US$580 billion), compared with the RUB 44.07 trillion (around US$570 billion) forecast in the budget law.

Projected revenues remain unchanged at RUB 40.28 trillion (around US$520 billion), implying a budget deficit of RUB 4.83 trillion (about US$62 billion). Meanwhile, the budget law envisages a deficit of RUB 3.79 trillion (about US$49 billion), or 1.6% of GDP.

According to Russia's Finance Ministry, the deficit stood at RUB 5.73 trillion (about US$74 billion) in the first half of the year, or 2.5% of GDP – 1.7 times higher than the figure for the same period in 2025.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the deficit will "somewhat" exceed the official figure, but added that it will not result in a significant increase in domestic borrowing.

Moreover, the deficit is expected to remain above previously planned levels over the next two years. The Finance Ministry has postponed its target of achieving a zero primary budget deficit until 2029.

Background:

• In May, it was reported that Russia's budget deficit exceeded the official annual target by 1.5 times, reaching RUB 5.88 trillion (US$75 billion) between January and April, partly due to declining oil and gas revenues.
• It later narrowed, partly due to a temporary easing of US sanctions and rising oil prices.

Subscribe on Patreon to back our journalism long-term.