Putin will not negotiate while Russia can strike Kyiv with ballistic missiles with impunity – ISW
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have said Russian leader Vladimir Putin is unlikely to agree to any negotiations as long as Russia can launch ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities with little risk of interception, amid a severe shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles.
Source: ISW
Details: ISW analysts highlight the potentially catastrophic consequences of the shortage of interceptor missiles ahead of the coming winter. Patriot air defence systems are the only systems capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles, but a lack of ammunition is leaving Ukraine's skies increasingly vulnerable.
The Kremlin has taken advantage of this vulnerability by deliberately shifting its defence production towards ballistic missiles.
Quote: "Russia's reprioritisation of production efforts toward ballistic missiles will support Russian efforts to use the upcoming winter to break Ukraine's will to fight. The Kremlin believes that it can exploit Ukraine's shortage of interceptor missiles to avoid having to enter meaningful negotiations or make concessions on its maximalist demands."
Details: ISW stressed that the lack of consequences for ballistic missile attacks has further convinced Putin that his "theory of victory" is working. It is based on the assumption that Russia can win a war of attrition if Russian forces maintain constant pressure along the line of contact while missile strikes target Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, exhausting Ukraine's resources and Western patience.
ISW also highlighted remarks made by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin on 9 August. He again confirmed that Russia opposes freezing the war and is demanding Ukraine's capitulation.
Background: Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, said Russia is increasing ballistic missile production for strikes against Ukraine and that a pause in missile strikes is unlikely.
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