Survey: 62% of Ukrainians believe neither side is currently winning war

A majority of Ukrainians (62%) believe that neither Ukraine nor Russia is currently winning the war, while 26% say Ukraine has the upper hand and 6% say Russia does.

Source: the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group on 3-5 October 2026

Quote: "An absolute majority believes that currently neither Ukraine nor Russia is winning the war (62%). A quarter speak of Ukraine's advantage (26%), and 6% of Russia's."

Details: The survey also found that 57% of respondents support a cessation of hostilities and seeking a compromise through negotiations. Meanwhile, 13% favour continuing the fighting until the lines of control as of 23 February 2022 are restored. Another 21% support continuing the fighting until the territories of Donbas and Crimea are liberated.

A total of 57% of respondents see seeking a compromise with the involvement of other countries in the negotiations as a realistic way to end the war, while another 26% favour direct negotiations.

Some 35% of respondents oppose territorial concessions in exchange for long-term peace. Meanwhile, 56% would accept such concessions if they were accompanied by security guarantees from the US and European partners, including funding for Ukrainian forces and weapons. Another 3% would accept concessions without any preconditions, while 6% were undecided.

If territorial concessions become a condition for peace, 68% of respondents believe the final decision should be made by the people in a nationwide referendum. Some 17% believe it should be made by the president, while 9% say the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) should decide.

For reference: The survey was conducted on 3-5 October 2026 using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) among 1,000 Ukrainians aged 18 and over.

Respondents were selected through a random sample of mobile phone numbers in all oblasts except for temporarily occupied territories and areas without Ukrainian mobile coverage at the time of the poll.

The results were weighted using current data from the State Statistics Service. The sample is representative by age, gender and type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 3.1 percentage points with a 95% confidence level.

Background: A survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that 62% of Ukrainians, like the majority of Kyiv residents, are prepared to endure the war for as long as necessary, whereas 23% are ready to continue fighting for only a few months or up to six months.

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