Journalists analyse intercepted Russian plan to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure
Journalists from Skhemy, an investigative project by Radio Liberty, have examined a Russian plan to pressure Ukraine, which identifies as priority targets for strikes "nodes" near Ukraine's western border through which electricity is imported, major hydroelectric power plants and even nuclear power plants.
Source: Radio Liberty
Details: The journalists obtained a copy of the Russian plan from sources in Ukrainian forces and studied it in detail.
The plan intercepted by Ukraine concerns Russia's strategy to cut electricity and heat supplies to Ukraine's major cities by up to 90%.
"One of the largest attacks took place on the night of 29-30 September, when hundreds of Russian strike drones and ballistic missiles were launched against the energy infrastructure of the capital and Kyiv Oblast," Radio Liberty recalls.
At least three of the facilities attacked that night – two combined heat and power plants in Kyiv and one thermal power plant in Kyiv Oblast – were identified by Skhemy journalists as being included in the Russian plan.
The plan, apparently prepared by the Russian side and provided by Ukrainian intelligence, was presented to Ukraine's partners in Paris on 17 September by Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal at the energy meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (also known as the Ramstein format), Radio Liberty notes.
The copy of the plan contains an analysis of Ukraine's energy capacity and calculations of the number of missiles, drones and bombs Russia would need to cut major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa off from electricity, heat and water.
The list of facilities "to be hit" includes nuclear power plants alongside small boiler houses.
However, the plan assesses them solely in terms of Ukrainians' electricity consumption in gigawatts, without any mention of the potential nuclear threat, the analysts note.
The plan identifies four priority targets: power generation and electricity supply, water supply, sewage and heating.
The first priority is to disable "nodes" near the western border through which electricity is imported from Europe.
These include cross-border power lines, high-voltage substations near the border and interconnectors – systems linking the power grids of Ukraine and EU countries, receiving European electricity and transforming it before transmitting it further into the country.
The plan also refers to major hydroelectric power plants, located mainly on the Dnipro and Dniester rivers, and the shutdown of three nuclear power plants – South Ukraine, Rivne and Khmelnytskyi. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been under Russian occupation since March 2022.
The plan lists a total of 60 key targets, including the aforementioned hydroelectric and nuclear power plants and interconnectors, as well as thermal power plants, combined heat and power plants, substations, boiler houses, wastewater treatment facilities, pumping stations and other state and municipal facilities on which electricity, water, sewage and heating depend.
The plan says that such attacks would require basic types of weapons: up to 770 Molniya and Geran UAVs and Dan-T/Banderol drone-launched cruise missiles, as well as 170 FABs (here and throughout the article, a modification of a high-explosive aerial bomb equipped with a universal planning and guidance module) and 75 Kinzhal aeroballistic and Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
The plan contains a detailed calculation for each facility, specifying how many weapons and of what type would be needed to disable it, Skhemy reported.
So, two Iskander missiles are envisaged for the destruction of a nuclear power plant (the plan refers to an "outdoor switchyard" – a high-voltage installation located outdoors that receives and transmits electricity). Accordingly, six missiles are required to destroy the equipment at three nuclear power plants.
As for hydroelectric power plants, up to 25 Molniyas, Gerans or Dan-T/Banderols, or three Kinzhal missiles, are allocated for each.
"In other words, for the destruction of 10 major Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants, depending on the distance to the launch site or line of contact, the document calculates a total of up to 30 Molniyas (for facilities located up to 60 km from the line of contact) and around 240 Gerans and Dan-T/Banderols, which can be replaced by Kinzhal ballistic missiles (probably up to 30)," Radio Liberty says.
For combined heat and power plants (five transformers), the calculation is likewise 25 Gerans and so on, or three Kinzhal missiles per facility. The plan also says that each combined heat and power plant could require around 25 FAB-500 bombs and five Iskander-M missiles.
For a substation (three transformers) or an interconnector, the calculation is 15 Molniyas and so on, or three Kinzhal missiles per facility. For housing and utilities infrastructure, it is 25 FABs or five Iskanders per facility, while a boiler house would require 20 Gerans.
Moreover, next to the section on boiler houses, the authors of the plan explicitly note that "due to their proximity to residential areas, the use of other types of weapons could result in civilian casualties".
The Russian plan specifies the types of weapons to be used "depending on the target and distance".
For example, it lists Molniyas and FAB-500s for distances of up to 40-60 km; Geran-4, Dan-T/Banderol and Iskander-M for 60-500 km; and Kinzhal, Kalibr, Oreshnik and Zircon for more than 500 km.
The capital's facilities occupy a special place in the plan, with Kyiv's energy system analysed and presented in detail.
The authors of the plan note that the capital's energy system is fairly extensive but identify five substations in the "Kyiv ring" serving different parts of the city as its "bottleneck", or more precisely, its weak point.
"Overall, according to the document, hitting 12 key substations in the three cities mentioned above should halt up to 90% of electricity supplies. For this, the authors of the document specify 40-50 Molniya drones and 130-140 Geran-4 or Dan-T/Banderol drone-launched missiles," Radio Liberty says.
Experts interviewed by the journalists say the plan is not a final operational plan but rather a set of calculations.
They also say this is not a new tactic, as Russia has systematically attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, turning cold and darkness into a weapon.
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