Russia exports half of traditional volume in October due to blocked Black Sea

Having harvested a record crop, Russia is unable to export it: 2026 figures are close to the results of 2025 (over 144 million tonnes are projected), while exports have dropped significantly.

Source: Russian publication pravda.ru

Details: In 2025, Russia harvested 141.2 million tonnes of grain, including 91.1 million tonnes of wheat. Currently, Russia has harvested 135 million tonnes of grain.

Arkadiy Zlochevsky, President of the Russian Grain Union, said that October shipment volumes are expected to reach three million tonnes.

"This is half of the usual autumn figures (over 6 million tonnes) and significantly lower than the figures for October of last year (5.6 million tonnes), when the export potential was lower than the current one," the publication states.

In attempts to overcome export stagnation due to transportation problems in the Black Sea, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture is considering new routes. However, each of them is associated with serious infrastructural and economic barriers.

The ministry considers the use of the Northern Sea Route possible, but for now, it has been recognised as economically unviable. Its implementation requires a specialised icebreaker fleet, appropriate port infrastructure and expensive insurance.

The reorientation of some flows towards the Baltic is already underway with the support of Russian Railways and traders, but these volumes are not capable of compensating for the overall decline in exports, the Russian department noted.

Meanwhile, China's potential as a main buyer is limited. The main obstacle is China's ban on the import of winter wheat, Russia's main crop, which accounts for two-thirds to three-quarters of the entire harvest, the publication notes.

"The situation with overflowing grain storage facilities and falling prices due to surpluses poses a threat to the long-term stability of the industry. Redirecting logistics from the South to the East or North is not a simple technical solution, as transportation costs directly affect the competitiveness of grain in foreign markets," the publication notes.

If the current logistics model is not adjusted promptly, without certainty in the possibility of selling products, Russian agrarians may reduce sowing volumes.

"In the absence of effective mechanisms for moving grain from regions to ports, high yields lead to the accumulation of surpluses and a drop in domestic prices, which threatens the profitability of all agricultural production," the publication states.

Background:

• Russian grain exports, which bring about US$15 billion annually into Russia's economy, have turned out to be almost completely paralysed due to Ukrainian strikes on ports in the Azov and Black Seas.
• Russian grain exporters are trying to find new supply routes: the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin are blocked, and exporting through the Baltic ports is too expensive.
• Russia began using the Arctic port of Murmansk for the first time to export grain from Stavropol Krai amid problems with grain exports through the Black Sea.
• The Russian port of Novorossiysk resumed grain shipments for export, but volumes remain significantly lower than last year's, and overall Russian grain export shipments through ports have dropped fourfold.
• Grain-laden vessels began moving through the Kerch Strait from the Azov Sea after a three-month suspension of transport amid Ukrainian drone attacks.
• The Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy was verifying reports on the resumption of vessel movements carrying Russian grain through the Azov and Black Seas.

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