Ukraine to lose US$5.2bn in export revenues due to port blockade

Russia's blockade of ports will cause Ukraine's agricultural sector to lose US$4.6 billion in export revenues in July-December 2026, and Ukraine will lose another US$0.6 billion due to the suspension of ore exports.

Source: October inflation report by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU)

Details: As a result of the blockade of sea routes, agricultural exports fell to a minimum of 1.8 million tonnes in August. Redirecting exports to alternative routes helped partially resume shipments in September, to 2.7 million tonnes.

In addition, exports of ferrous metals fell by 55% year-on-year in the third quarter. A further decline to 81% year-on-year is expected in the fourth quarter.

The shutdown of the largest metallurgical plants in the second half of 2026 could result in a loss of around US$1 billion in export revenues and an additional US$0.4 billion in imports to cover the domestic shortage of metals.

This means that Ukraine's trade balance losses due to the maritime blockade and attacks will reach US$6.6 billion in the second half of 2026.

Under the NBU's baseline scenario, the blockade of seaports will continue in the first half of 2027. Ore exports will be US$0.6 billion lower than they would be with fully operational seaports, while agricultural products will be shipped in the second half of 2027, although some will be lost due to prolonged storage.

The grain and oilseed harvest under the baseline scenario will also be 2.7 million tonnes lower in 2027. This will result in a loss of around US$4 billion in agricultural export revenues.

According to the forecast, metallurgical plants will not resume production throughout 2027, resulting in a loss of US$2.6 billion in exports and an increase of US$1.5 billion in imports of metal products to meet the economy's needs.

Overall, the NBU forecasts a loss of US$7.2 billion in export revenues and an increase of US$1.5 billion in imports in 2027.

Background:

• The impact of intensified Russian attacks on businesses and infrastructure, together with the blockade of ports, will reduce Ukraine's real GDP growth rate in 2026 by 1.9 percentage points and add around 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation, according to the same NBU report.
• Available funding is expected to last Ukrainian farmers until approximately the New Year, but the sector could face an even more severe shortage of funds in the spring if exports through the Black Sea do not resume.

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