Russia may move to defence in Ukraine in 2023 due to resources shortage – US intelligence
The US Intelligence Community believes that Russia currently lacks the ammunition and troops to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in 2023, so it may switch to a strategy of holding and defending its existing positions, prolonging the war.
Source: Avril Haines, Director of US National Intelligence, said during a Senate hearing on 8 March, as reported by European Pravda, citing The New York Times
Details: As she states, after the recent setbacks on the battlefield, Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun to realise the problems facing Russian troops and may adjust his strategy in the short term.
Quote: "Even as the Russian offensive continues, they are experiencing high casualty rates. Putin is likely better understanding the limits of what his military is capable of achieving and appears to be focused on more limited military objectives for now," Haines said.
Details: As the Director of National Intelligence states, Russia may choose to continue the war in Ukraine, even if it means long offensive-action pauses, as the best chance to achieve its strategic goals.
Haines also stated that, in addition to troop losses, Russia is facing critical morale issues and ammunition shortage.
"If Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and identify substantial third party ammunition supplies, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain the current level of offensive operations in the coming months," she predicted
"And consequently, they may fully shift to holding and defending territories they occupy. In short we do not foresee the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains," Haines said
Background: On 8 March, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the Ukrainian defence of Bakhmut may fall into Russian hands in the coming days. Still, it would not necessarily be a turning point in the war.
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