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Ukraine's public debt to exceed 100% of GDP in 2 years

Wednesday, 11 October 2023, 16:25

The International Monetary Fund predicts an increase in Ukraine's total public debt this year to 88.1% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), and by 2025, the public debt will exceed 100% of GDP.

Source: The Financial Monitor report presented in Marrakech by Vítor Gaspar, Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF

Details: It is noted that the total public debt of Ukraine in 2021, before Russia’s full-scale invasion, amounted to 48.9% of the national GDP. In 2022, this figure rose to 78.5% and is expected to grow to 88.1% by the end of this year.

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In addition, the Fund predicts that Ukraine's total public debt will grow to 98.6% next year and peak at 100.7% in 2025, after which it is expected to gradually decline.

Background:

  • Ukraine has begun discussions with foreign bondholders on restructuring its US$20 billion debt ahead of schedule to attract new financing.
  • Negotiations with bondholders were supposed to start early next year. But Ukraine is keen to agree on a restructuring as soon as possible.
  • Ukraine's public and publicly guaranteed debt increased by US$1.01 billion in August 2023 and as of 31 August, it totalled US$133.93 billion. 
  • Earlier, Ukraine was allowed to postpone debt repayment until 2027 by the decision of the Group of Creditors, which includes all G7 countries.

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