ISW analyses Russian tactical objectives on Pokrovsk front

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that Russian forces are pursuing several tactical objectives on the Pokrovsk front, particularly attempts to envelop the city of Pokrovsk from the east and west and to exert pressure on the town of Kostiantynivka.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russian forces are currently pursuing three distinct tactical objectives in the Pokrovsk direction, but Ukrainian drone operations and localised counterattacks are continuing to complicate Russian advances in the area."

Details: Major Viktor Trehubov, spokesman for the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group of Ukraine's Armed Forces, reported on 7 April that Russian forces are attempting to cut the T-0504 Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka road northeast of Pokrovsk, bypass the city from the west and advance towards Novopavlivka, located southwest of Pokrovsk.

Quote: "Russian forces are making limited gains northeast of Pokrovsk toward the T-0504 road and southwest of Pokrovsk toward Novopavlivka but appear to be struggling to advance immediately south and southwest of Pokrovsk – where Ukrainian forces have focused most of their counterattacks in February, March and early April 2025."

Details: The Russian offensive northeast of Pokrovsk is aimed at supporting efforts to encircle the city from both the east and west while also pressuring Kostiantynivka from the south by advancing along the T-0504 road and eliminating a Ukrainian salient southwest of Toretsk.

In early 2025, the Russian military command reportedly deployed additional units to support offensives east and northeast of Pokrovsk. However, in recent months, Russian forces have made only limited progress towards Kostiantynivka (northeast of Pokrovsk) and 5–7 km north of the settlement of Vozdvyzhenka.

Quote: "Russian forces recently advanced beyond the western outskirts of Toretsk and southwest of Toretsk near Panteleimonivka and Oleksandropil, and Russian forces may allocate additional troops and reprioritise offensive operations northeast of Pokrovsk if Russian forces begin to make more significant advances from Toretsk toward Kostiantynivka.

The situation immediately south and southwest of Pokrovsk remains extremely dynamic amid intensified Russian offensive operations and localised Ukrainian counterattacks and drone operations in the area."

Details: ISW noted that in mid-March 2025, Russian forces intensified offensive operations on the Pokrovsk front in an attempt to capture Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk). However, they have made little progress since late autumn 2024, largely due to localised Ukrainian counterattacks and drone activity in the area.

The analysts added that Russian forces are continuing to deplete their personnel and equipment through unsuccessful mechanised assaults and ongoing infantry attacks supported by armoured vehicles further southwest of Pokrovsk.

Quote: "ISW previously noted that Ukrainian drone operations have been key in defending against Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction and throughout the front line over the last year, although Ukraine must address its morale, force generation and training issues to completely stall the Russian advance in Donetsk Oblast."

Details: Russian forces have spent the past 13 months trying to seize Pokrovsk, losing more than five tank divisions and thousands of troops in the process.

Quote: "Ongoing Russian offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk and attack Kostiantynivka highlight Russian President Vladimir Putin's determination to seize all of Ukraine through military means at whatever cost if he cannot do so through negotiations." [N.B. Ukrainska Pravda doesn't recognise Putin as president – ed.]

Details: The analysts point out that Putin and the Russian military command seem intent on capturing Pokrovsk and assaulting Kostiantynivka, disregarding the losses.

Quote: "Ongoing Russian attacks towards Kostiantynivka from several directions highlight Russia's ongoing efforts to seize the fortress belt, despite the fact that an offensive operation against the wider Ukrainian fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast would likely take Russian forces several years to complete, assuming that the West continues to provide aid to Ukraine."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 8 April:

• Ukrainian forces recently captured Chinese nationals fighting in the Russian military in several areas of Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian and US authorities announced a second round of US-Russia bilateral discussions focused on normalising diplomatic missions but not on discussing the ceasefire agreements offered jointly by the US and Ukraine will be held in Istanbul on 10 April.
• Russian forces are currently pursuing three distinct tactical objectives on the Pokrovsk front, but Ukrainian drone operations and localised counterattacks are continuing to complicate Russian advances in the area.
• Russian forces renewed long-range missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on 7 to 8 April following a brief pause on 6 to 7 April.
• Russian forces continue to innovate with long-range Shahed strike drone tactics to maximise the impact of strikes against Ukraine.
• European states continue to provide financial and military aid to Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced an initiative ostensibly aimed at securing medical treatment and rehabilitation for wounded Russian troops, but the MoD may weaponise this initiative against wounded servicemembers in practice.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts and near Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka.
• The Kremlin is considering passing a bill that may incentivise volunteer recruitment for conscription-age men ages 18 to 30 years old.

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